Storm Chasing

The Cap Won

I don’t know why so many storm chasers decided to chase in northern Missouri this last Monday. I could have told folks it had “cap bust” written all over it–didn’t fool me for a minute, as you can see by reading my post written the day before.

Ahem…right, so I got snookered too. The GFS was spot on about the cap, and the NAM way underforecast it. As a result, Missouri chasers wound up sitting under relentlessly empty skies waiting for convection to fire. It finally did in northeast Kansas–after dark. Storms ignited along a boundary (the warm front? ) and a couple went supercellular and even tornado-warned for a heartbeat before the cap re-exerted itself and squenched them.

The real action, ironically, took place in central Illinois and Indiana, well east of where most folks–including me–had expected. Supercells cut a swath along the warm front through Terre Haute, Indianopolis, and parts east and southeast into Kentucky, and a number of purple boxes lit up the radar screen. Nevertheless, SPC storm reports list only one confirmed tornado that touched down near Hillsboro, Illinois, northeast of Saint Louis.

Them’s the breaks. I didn’t chase that day, and I’m glad that I didn’t because I’d almost certainly have gotten skunked in Missouri when I could have driven straight south down US 41 to Terre Haute, not even having to mess with Chicago traffic, and waltzed on into the sweet zone.

Ah, well. I chased today–if chasing is what you can call a guaranteed grunge fest–down toward a warm front by the Michigan border. The trip was my compensation prize for not heading out when it really counted these past few days. The SPC had outlooked a five percent tornado risk this afternoon, and supercells were making their way northeast across Illinois toward Indiana. I figured that if they held together, I might catch them, but not surprisingly, they mushed out.

That was okay. I was chasing blind, with no radar and few expectations other than the hope that I’d at least see some lightning. I did, and called it good. The main storm season is still on the way, and there’s no need to fret over spilled milk when the cow is just priming its udder. It won’t be long now.

April 7, 2010 by Robert Hartig

Filed Under: Life, Michigan, Outdoors, Storm Chasing, Weather Tagged With: cap bust, convection, lightning, one confirmed tornado, storm chasers, storm season, storms ignited along a boundary, supercells, tornado risk, tornado-warned, warm front

First Supercell of 2010 in Michigan

Michigan’s first supercell of the year rolled through southern Michigan this morning, prompting our state’s first tornado warning for 2010. The cell was a sweet little tail-end Charlie that showed bursts of decent rotation and triggered a series of TVSs. It is presently getting set to exit the state near Mount Clemens, leaving behind it a series of hail reports up to an inch but nothing more. It’s what one would expect given the cool temperatures, low dewpoints, and weak-to-borderline low-level helicity.

Here’s a GR3 radar grab of the storm as it was crossing US 127 south of Mason; click on it to enlarge it. A scan or two prior the cell had a nice hook to it, and you can still see the suggestion of a weak echo region with inflow coming in from the east.

Caledonia got nailed by the northern part of the line earlier. At 10:20 a.m., the sky was as dark as a black cat’s belly and the parking lot lights were on. There were one-inch hail reports in the area; my friend Kurt Hulst called to tell me that he had gotten marbles over at his apartment and wondered whether any of that had come my way. It hadn’t, but we got a truly massive downpour, really something to see. It’s going to bring a lot of green to an already nicely greening landscape.

More storms in the forecast for today. Yeah! Bring ’em on!

April 6, 2010 by Robert Hartig

Filed Under: Life, Michigan, Storm Chasing, Tornadoes, Weather Tagged With: decent rotation, first supercell of 2010 in Michigan, first tornado warning for 2010, GR3 radar grab, hail reports up to an inch, Michigan, storms in the forecast, supercell, tail-end Charlie, TVSs

NAM Model Soundings for Northwest Missouri

The GFS wants to cap the crap out of tomorrow’s setup, but the NAM paints a much more positive picture in northwestern Missouri. Having looked over the SREF, I have a hunch that it’s the GFS that is out to lunch regarding convective inhibition, at least in that neck of the woods. Frankly, I find this thought rather annoying since I’ll just be armchair chasing tomorrow, and I feel pretty certain that some significant tornadoes are going to occur in northern Missouri and maybe Iowa.

For those of you who will be chasing, you might enjoy taking a gander at these NAM model soundings for 22Z Monday, April 5. (Click on the images to enlarge them.) If those verify, then there ought to be some very busy storm chasers tomorrow afternoon. The soundings are for Saint Joseph and Kansas City, Missouri.

If you’re one of those who are hitting the road tomorrow in pursuit of Big Weather: have fun, get great photos/video, and stay safe.

April 4, 2010 by Robert Hartig

Filed Under: Storm Chasing, Tornadoes, Weather Tagged With: NAM model soundings for northwest Missouri, significant tornadoes, soundings are for Saint Joseph and Kansas City, SREF, very busy storm chasers

Midwest Storm Chase Shaping Up for Monday

Monday is shaping up to be one of those days that will tear me in two: the first really decent storm chasing setup in the Midwest, beautifully accessible, but my finances are too meager right now for me to do anything about it. Aaargh!

Just look at this TwisterData 12Z NAM forecast sounding for April 5, 00Z, in extreme northeastern Missouri, up near Cantril, Iowa (click to enlarge). It’s near a nice 1 km EHI bullseye. Nice CAPE, nice veering with height, just a dab of CINH–what more could you ask for? The hodograph, not shown, curves beautifully.

However the exact mesoscale details shake out come Monday, the models have lately been coming together nicely to paint a compelling warm-front picture in southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri, and western Illinois. Somewhere in that vicinity, tornadoes look likely. Maybe farther west, too, though capping may be an issue. Right now, though, I’m not current on the dryline/triple point play; my attention is focused on my own back yard.

This promises to be a sweet setup for Great Lakes chasers. Maybe there’ll be some fortuitous way I can seize the opportunity, but I have an idea that I’ll be armchair chasing Monday afternoon and eating my heart out. As for Tuesday, well, there’s been talk about that, but right now I’m not as excited about it. Monday’s the day. Oh, man. So near and yet so far–gotta get to it some kinda way.

April 3, 2010 by Robert Hartig

Filed Under: Storm Chasing, Tornadoes, Weather Tagged With: EHI bullseye, Great Lakes chasers, hodograph, Midwest storm chase, NAM forecast sounding, Storm Chasing, tornadoes look likely

1965 Palm Sunday Outbreak Commemorative Event: Update

Here’s the latest on the 45-year anniversary commemoration of the 1965 Palm Sunday Tornadoes (click here for original notification):

Date: Sunday, April 11, 2010
Time: 3:30 EST
Location: Palm Sunday Tornado Memorial, corner of Amy and Cole Streets, Dunlap, IN, south of Elkhart. Click here for Wayfaring Map.
Event organizer: Debbie Forsythe-Watters

The event will feature a number of speakers, including Dan McCarthy, this year’s keynote speaker. Dan is the meteorologist in charge at KIND, the National Weather Service office in Indianapolis. He is the author of 40th Anniversary of the Palm Sunday Outbreak: How It Changed Preparedness & Forecasting, a presentation which he delivered at the 9th Annual Ohio Severe Weather Symposium.

Lest that sound a bit intimidating to those who aren’t weather weenies, Dan is a great guy. I haven’t met him in person, but we’ve connected on Facebook and swapped a few emails, and he strikes me as a very likeable, down-to-earth person who knows how to talk to his listeners, not above them. I don’t know what he has in mind, but I very much doubt he’s going to deliver a college-level weather lecture. Rather, I suspect that he’ll have some understandable and fascinating insights to share on the second worst Midwestern tornado outbreak in modern history.

It’s also possible that Paul and Elizabeth Huffman may show up. Paul is the press photographer who took the famous shot of the twin funnels hitting the Midway Trailer Park two miles south of Dunlap. He and his wife are elderly, and their attendance will depend on how they’re feeling that day. It’s an unpressured arrangement between Debbie and the Huffmans, so we’ll keep our fingers crossed and leave it at that.

In any event, if you have any stake in the 1965 Palm Sunday Outbreak, don’t miss this event. Come expecting to connect with people who in one way or another were affected by the Palm Sunday Tornadoes. If you’re a survivor of the tornadoes, you’ll meet others who also lived through them, and you’ll have stories to share. If you lost a loved one in the storms, you’ll meet others who know what it was like to endure such a loss—who still, after all this time, feel the ache and understand yours. If you’re a child or relative of someone who experienced the tornadoes, you’ve heard some of the stories; this will be your chance to hear others, and to gain insights into your mother or father, aunt or uncle.

No matter who you are, if you’re interested in the 1965 Palm Sunday Tornadoes and you live in the area, in northern Indiana or southern Michigan, I think you’ll find this a worthwhile and memorable afternoon.

March 29, 2010 by Robert Hartig

Filed Under: Life, Michigan, Tornadoes, Weather Tagged With: 1865 Palm Sunday Outbreak, commemorative event, Dan McCarthy, Dunlap IN, Palm Sunday Tornado Memorial, Palm Sunday Tornadoes, second worst Midwestern tornado outbreak, survivor of the tornadoes, twin funnels

45 Year Commemorative Event Planned for 1965 Palm Sunday Tornadoes

April 11 this year will mark the 45th anniversary of the second worst Midwestern tornado outbreak of modern times. The 1965 Palm Sunday Outbreak is noteworthy not so much for the number of tornadoes involved as for their violence and the number of fatalities they produced. Out of 38 “significant” (F2 or greater) tornadoes that occurred in six state over 11 hours, 19 were rated at F4 and two at F5. Going by NOAA’s death toll and adding to it one Iowa resident who died a month later from his injuries, 272 men, women, and children lost their lives in the storms.

One of the victims was Stevie Forsythe, the brother of my friend Debbie Forsythe-Watters. Debbie is the owner of a tornado memorial park that occupies the property where her childhood home in Dunlap, Indiana, just south of Elkhart, was swept away by F5 winds. To learn more about the park, check out my earlier post on the Dunlap tornado memorial, complete with photos.

Debbie is currently planning this year’s commemorative event, to be held on the date of the tornadoes: Sunday, April 11. If you take an interest in this historic and influential weather disaster, you may wish to attend the service. It will be held on the park grounds. The time has yet to be determined, but it will likely be in the late afternoon.

I will post more information as details are solidified.

March 22, 2010 by Robert Hartig

Filed Under: Life, Relationships, Storm Chasing, Tornadoes, Weather Tagged With: 1965 Palm Sunday Outbreak, 1965 Palm Sunday Tornadoes, Dunlap tornado memorial, historic and influential weather disaster, second worst Midwestern tornado outbreak of modern times, storms, tornado memorial park, Tornadoes

Moisture Return Getting Primed for April?

So far most of the systems that have moved across the CONUS have lacked the moisture needed to produce tornadoes. But that may be about change toward the end of March. If the GFS is good for at least suggesting possibilities, then the Gulf of Mexico may finally start to open up and introduce 60s dewpoints well up into Dixie Alley, and upper 50s into the Midwest.

Just for kicks, I ran a series of today’s 12Z models for 21Z and 18Z out through 384 hours, and I found the first glimmer of better days around 159 hours in east Texas, shifting to Mississippi and Alabama at 180 hours. By the end of March, around 300 hours, deeper incursions of adequate to decent dewpoints were stretching north.

Let’s not get into the foibles of long-range forecasts, okay? We all know about them, and this post isn’t even a wishcast, just pure speculation. At this time of year, with El Nino gradually weakening, it seems reasonable to think that the moisture fetch will start improving as March transitions into April.

On the one hand, the ENSO charts call for cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Gulf; on the other hand, warmer weather ahead, common sense, and plain old gut instinct suggest that something’s gotta give. A tornado-less February, fine; a downscale March, understandable; but I just can’t image a convectively wimpy April.

March 19, 2010 by Robert Hartig

Filed Under: Storm Chasing, Tornadoes, Weather Tagged With: 60s dewpoints well up into Dixie Alley, adequate to decent dewpoints, cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Gulf, El Nino gradually weakening, ENSO charts, moisture fetch will start improving, moisture needed to produce tornadoes

Update on Palm Sunday Tornadoes Book

In a post a few months ago, I mentioned that I was writing a book on the 1965 Palm Sunday Tornadoes. I’ve kept the project largely under wraps, but yesterday I passed a significant mile marker, and I’m too pleased to not say anything. So here’s the news: as of last night, chapter two is completed.

That may not seem like such a grand achievement, but if you knew the amount of time it has taken me to accomplish it, both in doing the research and in waiting for the opportunity to pull together important pieces of information, then you would understand how formidable has been the logjam that I’ve just broken through. I can’t overstate how much pleasure I take in saying that, praise God, this bit of work is now behind me, and while the next part of the job will also take time, it should be relatively straightforward.

Chapter two deals with the meteorological and operational forecasting concerns of the Palm Sunday Outbreak. My goal in writing this chapter has been to create a solid context for the personal accounts which will commence in chapter three. I’ve striven to provide a decent overview of how a weak surface low centered over Denver on April 9, 1965, evolved into an historical weather disaster two days later on April 11. My challenge: furnish essential meteorological information that will interest and educate a popular readership rather than overwhelm them, without “dumbing down” to the point where weather weenies who desire a bit of substance would feel disappointed.

I’m extremely happy with the results, which include a historical backdrop of America and the state of meteorology in the United States at the time of the tornadoes; a chronology of tornado forecasts and warnings woven into a fast-paced narrative; a colorful description of the outbreak’s first tornado as it formed and moved across eastern Iowa; and the energy required to engage readers to the end, building enough momentum to launch them easily and naturally into chapter three.

Brag, brag, brag. Hey, don’t YOU brag about YOUR kids? I’ve worked hard to earn this mellow but celebratory mood I’m in. This has been a big hurdle I’ve crossed, and I don’t mind giving myself an attaboy. Now comes the next phase of the book, which will consist of the stories of Palm Sunday Tornado survivors. Look for further updates a few months from now.

March 14, 2010 by Robert Hartig

Filed Under: Life, Storm Chasing, Tornadoes, Weather Tagged With: 1965 Palm Sunday Tornadoes, historical weather disaster, Palm Sunday Tornadoes book, state of meteorology in the United States, tornado forecasts and warnings, tornado survivors

Radar Grabs from March 10 in Arkansas

Yesterday morning at 8:30, I looked at the RUC and the NAM, shook my head, and then headed out the door anyway to go bust chasing in Illinois. Chalk it up to a long Michigan winter or just plain foolhardiness, but there are times when I just have to go, period. Set out with my expectations low and hang my compass on nothing but hope, with the mindset that I’ll be grateful just to get a flash and a rumble. That’s what my buddy Bill and I got yesterday, and I’ll tell you, it was nice.

no images were found

The day before, March 10, the same storm system delivered a considerably higher level of intensity as it moved through Arkansas. Those meager-to-modest dewpoints managed to produce a nice little swarm of supercells on the nose of a handsome 500 mb jet, and several tornadoes spun down.

I didn’t chase that day, but I made a point of following things at home, and I happened to capture a few level 2 images of the day’s main bruiser near Searcy, about 50 miles northeast of Little Rock. The images were taken around 0235 Z (8:35 CST). Note the interesting “hammerhead” hook on the first reflectivity image. Beyond that, I’m not going to say more, just offer you the screen grabs for your viewing pleasure, along with some exciting memories for those of you who were on that storm.

no images were found

March 12, 2010 by Robert Hartig

Filed Under: Storm Chasing, Tornadoes, Weather Tagged With: 500 mb jet, hammerhead hook, meager-to-modest dewpoints, radar grabs from March 10 in Arkansas, several tornadoes, storm system, swarm of supercells

So Much for Thursday in Illinois

I was hoping, really hoping, that this Thursday would shape up as my first chase day of the year out in Illinois. The NAM sure looked promising for a second, but now, like Dante’s inferno, it has “Abandon all hope, ye who enter here” written over the door.

The GFS was never very positive to begin with, but at this time of year, Great Lakes chasers are optimistic out of sheer desperation, and I guess I wasn’t the only one who was rooting for the NAM with its bullish CAPE of up to 1,500 j/kg and sweet lapse rates.

But it’s gone, all gone. Yesterdays NAM runs weakened the CAPE and shuttled it south and east. A nice cold core setup in southeast Iowa/northwest Illinois materialized long enough to whisper sweet nothings, but nothings are probably all they were. The 500 mb low has since slunk apologetically back west toward Kansas City, with its -25 C temperature minimum well displaced from the surface moisture lobe. The setup could still change, but unless it bumps back east and stacks back up, I’m not going to drive that far to find out.

I will, however, very likely head toward the Michigan border around New Buffalo. Moisture looks to be ample with mid- to upper-50s dewpoints augmented by evaporation, backed surface winds, and precip breaking out by 21Z if this present NAM verifies. If it does, there could be a bit of lightning and thunder, and at least the slim possibility of a brief spin-up; if not, it’ll have been a pleasant break-in drive for chase season 2010.

March 10, 2010 by Robert Hartig

Filed Under: Nature, Storm Chasing, Tornadoes, Weather Tagged With: bullish CAPE of up to 1500, cold core setup in southeast Iowa/northwest Illinois, first chase day of the year, GFS, lightning and thunder, NAM