Midwest Storm Chase Shaping Up for Monday

Monday is shaping up to be one of those days that will tear me in two: the first really decent storm chasing setup in the Midwest, beautifully accessible, but my finances are too meager right now for me to do anything about it. Aaargh!

Just look at this TwisterData 12Z NAM forecast sounding for April 5, 00Z, in extreme northeastern Missouri, up near Cantril, Iowa (click to enlarge). It’s near a nice 1 km EHI bullseye. Nice CAPE, nice veering with height, just a dab of CINH–what more could you ask for? The hodograph, not shown, curves beautifully.

However the exact mesoscale details shake out come Monday, the models have lately been coming together nicely to paint a compelling warm-front picture in southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri, and western Illinois.  Somewhere in that vicinity, tornadoes look likely. Maybe farther west, too, though capping may be an issue. Right now, though, I’m not current on the  dryline/triple point play; my attention is focused on my own back yard.

This promises to be a sweet setup for Great Lakes chasers. Maybe there’ll be some fortuitous way I can seize the opportunity, but I have an idea that I’ll be armchair chasing Monday afternoon and eating my heart out. As for Tuesday, well, there’s been talk about that, but right now I’m not as excited about it. Monday’s the day. Oh, man. So near and yet so far–gotta get to it some kinda way.