Radar Grabs from March 10 in Arkansas

Yesterday morning at 8:30, I looked at the RUC and the NAM, shook my head, and then headed out the door anyway to go bust chasing in Illinois. Chalk it up to a long Michigan winter or just plain foolhardiness, but there are times when I just have to go, period. Set out with my expectations low and hang my compass on nothing but hope, with the mindset that I’ll be grateful just to get a flash and a rumble. That’s what my buddy Bill and I got yesterday, and I’ll tell you, it was nice.

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The day before, March 10, the same storm system delivered a considerably higher level of intensity as it moved through Arkansas. Those meager-to-modest dewpoints managed to produce a nice little swarm of supercells on the nose of a handsome 500 mb jet, and several tornadoes spun down.

I didn’t chase that day, but I made a point of following things at home, and I happened to capture a few level 2 images of the day’s main bruiser near Searcy, about 50 miles northeast of Little Rock. The images were taken around 0235 Z (8:35 CST). Note the interesting “hammerhead” hook on the first reflectivity image. Beyond that, I’m not going to say more, just offer you the screen grabs for your viewing pleasure, along with some exciting memories for those of you who were on that storm.

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March 12, 2010 by
Filed Under: Storm Chasing, Tornadoes, Weather Tagged With: , , , , , ,

So Much for Thursday in Illinois

I was hoping, really hoping, that this Thursday would shape up as my first chase day of the year out in Illinois. The NAM sure looked promising for a second, but now, like Dante’s inferno, it has “Abandon all hope, ye who enter here” written over the door.

The GFS was never very positive to begin with, but at this time of year, Great Lakes chasers are optimistic out of sheer desperation, and I guess I wasn’t the only one who was rooting for the NAM with its bullish CAPE of up to 1,500 j/kg and sweet lapse rates.

But it’s gone, all gone. Yesterdays NAM runs weakened the CAPE and shuttled it south and east. A nice cold core setup in southeast Iowa/northwest Illinois materialized long enough to whisper sweet nothings, but nothings are probably all they were. The 500 mb low has since slunk apologetically back west toward Kansas City, with its -25 C temperature minimum well displaced from the surface moisture lobe. The setup could still change, but unless it bumps back east and stacks back up, I’m not going to drive that far to find out.

I will, however, very likely head toward the Michigan border around New Buffalo. Moisture looks to be ample with mid- to upper-50s dewpoints augmented by evaporation, backed surface winds, and precip breaking out by 21Z if this present NAM verifies. If it does, there could be a bit of lightning and thunder, and at least the slim possibility of a brief spin-up; if not, it’ll have been a pleasant break-in drive for chase season 2010.

March 10, 2010 by
Filed Under: Nature, Storm Chasing, Tornadoes, Weather Tagged With: , , , , ,

Faux Supercell: A Weird Radar Image

Three days ago, glancing idly at the national radar composite, I saw a bright patch of red in northwest Nebraska. I decided to take a closer look at it with

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GR3 and did a double-take. What the heck was it? Base level reflectivity showed what looked like a pronounced hook, but there was no indication of rotation on SRM and the cloud tops were only 10,000-15,000 feet. The storm was moving northwest toward the low, the way I’ve seen some low-top supercells do. I opened GR2AE in order to get better resolution, but it showed nothing particularly illuminating.

I knew this thing couldn’t be a supercell, but still… If I’d taken just a few seconds to pay attention to the surface obs, I wouldn’t have had even a shadow of doubt, but that’s not my style. I was just plain intrigued by this faux supercell, so I grabbed the images and tossed them onto a thread

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on Stormtrack, thinking that others might also find them interesting. After all, the storm looked about as supercellular as anything I’ve seen that wasn’t actually a supercell–a camouflage act of sorts, kind of like certain harmless snakes whose color schemes mimic those of poisonous snakes.

Jason Boggs wrote back to say he thought it was just a sleet storm. Then in pipes Rob Dale pointing out that surface obs showed temps in the low thirties and snow, with no lightning within 150 miles. Smarty pants. How did he know there wasn’t a mile-wide snow wedge underneath that thing? There could have been. Well, there COULD have!

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Okay, there couldn’t have, but it’s fun to think about.

Getting back to the point: I thought these were some cool images, noteworthy because of their mimicry. I figured that you might enjoy them too. Click on them to enlarge them.

March 8, 2010 by
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El Nino and a Delayed 2010 Storm Season

Back in December I wrote a post speculating how El Nino might affect the moisture fetch from the Gulf of Mexico. I wrote as a non-expert, which is always my position regarding weather related stuff, but it appears that my concern about the influence of cooler sea surface temperatures on return flow actually held water.

Tornado season normally begins ramping up in Dixie Alley in February, solidifies in March, peaks in April, then begins to decline in May as the action moves west and north toward traditional Tornado Alley.

Last year the tornado total for February, 2009, was 43. It consisted of six tornado days, two of which were outbreaks of 12 and 21 tornadoes.

This year, the tally for February was a statistically unprecedented zero. That’s no, nada, zippo tornadoes at all last month. Instead, the South experienced record-breaking cold weather, with snow in virtually all of the southern states and a series of brutal winter storms lashing Oklahoma, Texas, and parts of Dixie Alley.

Now we’re into March, and the snow seems to finally be behind us. As I sit here writing, I can look out the sliding doors of my apartment at a beautiful day with temperatures climbing into the mid forties. I’ll take that with a smile, along with the warming trend that’s in store for this coming week here in West Michigan. But at the same time, sampling buoys across the Gulf of Mexico, I see water temperatures in the low to mid fifties and some really horrible dewpoints. It looks a lot like what the ENSO sea surface temperature table has predicted, namely, cooler-than-average temperatures.

We’re presently looking at  systems moving through the Plains that might be tornado breeders if they weren’t starved for moisture. It’s hard to get excited about dewpoints that barely scrape into the low to mid fifties pretty much everywhere except waaay down in southern Texas and Louisiana.

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Okay, it’s only March. What’s a bit scary is to think that the Gulf may not be up to snuff till as late as May. Click on this image of the Climate Prediction Center”s ENSO sea surface temperature anomaly forecast, updated March 1, and you’ll see what I’m talking about. The first two tables are the ones you want to pay attention to. That blue in the Gulf of Mexico doesn’t look too promising.

I hope I’m wrong, and it could be that I am. A quick glance at water temperatures west of the Florida peninsula shows some temps into the seventies well out into the Gulf, so maybe things will pick up more quickly than the map suggests. The ENSO update does indicate that El Nino is weakening:

•A majority of the models indicate that the Niño-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease at least into the summer.

•The models are split with the majority indicating ENSO-neutral conditions by May-July 2010 and persisting into the Fall. Several models also suggest the potential of continued El Niño conditions or the development of La Niña conditions during the Fall.

–Page 27, March 1, 2010, CPC-NCEP ENSO Update

That’s a good sign, kind of. The last part leaves us hanging, but as always, time will tell.

More immediately, I wonder, as I did three months ago, whether we won’t see a delayed storm season. I think, I hope, that when it does finally arrive, it will be a stellar one.  There’s reason to be hopeful, considering the ample ground moisture available for evapotranspiration throughout Tornado Alley, including areas that languished last year under a severe drought. No such problem this year. I hear some chasers talking about West Texas, and I’ll bet they’re right. Once the Gulf finally does set up shop, whether sooner or later, I expect to be making some trips out west. See y’all at the edge of the meso.

March 7, 2010 by
Filed Under: Life, Nature, Storm Chasing, Tornadoes, Weather Tagged With: , , , , , ,

First Crack at Severe Weather (Has the GFS Ever Lied?)

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Here on the last day of February–just one day before meteorological spring begins–temperatures are finally settling into a warming trend here in Michigan. With plenty of snow still on the ground but the promise of better days in sight, and with me feeling my repressed itch for severe weather beginning to surface too insistently not to scratch, I’ve cast a wistful eye on the long-range GFS.

At 180 hours out from today’s 6Z run–in other words, on March 7, early afternoon–things look interesting. Not inspiring, just something to keep an eye on. If you’re a

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fellow storm chaser, you know the drill, and you know how the models change. With that caveat, while I haven’t been an avid follower of the GFS these days, I seem to recall that it was painting a somewhat similar scenario last week.

Anyway, here are the surface maps for sea level pressure and surface dewpoints at 18Z, March 7. Click on the images to enlarge them. Obviously the moisture could stand improvement, and I wonder whether sea surface temperatures in the Gulf will be warm enough to deliver, but let’s see what happens from here.

February 28, 2010 by
Filed Under: Life, Michigan, Storm Chasing, Weather Tagged With: , , , , , , ,

Wavespray on Lake Michigan

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If March coming in is anywhere nearly as leonine as February going out, it will be a March lion indeed. Today the wind was blowing hard out at Holland Beach, churning Lake Michigan into a grand spectacle of roiling billows, crashing surf, and smoke-like spume torn from the wave tops and carried along on the gale.

It was a marvelous sight. Lisa preceded me out onto the pier, and when I caught up with her, she was standing there, laughing as the waves burst

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against the ice shelf and threw blasts of icy water toward her. That’s my kind of gal! Someone who takes joy in the wild side of nature.

Unfortunately, the water got all over my camera and onto my lens, so the latter part of my photos are somewhat distorted by water droplets. But I don’t mind terribly, because the effect is actually rather moody. I guess if I was going to have something go wrong with my photos, I would pick that.

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Speaking of photos, the four here were all taken from the beach and out on the pier. Click on them to enlarge them.

In taking them, I got more soaked than I realized; and the wind chill being what it was with the northwest wind blasting in off the big lake, I rapidly got much colder than I ever expected. But it was worth it to get some shots of Lake Michigan’s raw, unfettered side.

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I haven’t edited these images. I’m slapping them up here just as they are–maybe not works of art, but a taste of the kind of effect the shoreline is capable of delivering when the gales blow hard across the big waters.

February 27, 2010 by
Filed Under: Life, Michigan, Outdoors, Photography, Weather Tagged With: , , , , , ,

Getting Ready for the Skunk Cabbage

Here’s some news that will put joy in your heart: skunk cabbage days are almost here! (And all the people shouted, “Hurrah!” and donned their festive garments.)

It’s true. Sometime within the next three weeks or so, the odd, purple cowls of Symplocarpus foetidus will start pushing up through the mud and matted leaves of the wetlands where they grow, generating enough heat to melt their way through the ice and snow and provide a microclimate for early insects. Here in the Great Lakes, the skunk cabbage is the year’s first wildflower, and I always get happy when I see it begin to show. It’s a charming little plant, though there’s nothing particularly pretty about it. This plant doesn’t care about “pretty.” It’s all about character and nail-toughness. Skunk cabbage has the grit of a pioneer.

It also has the smell of a pioneer, as you’ll find out if you ever hold a piece of the broken flower or leaf up to your nose and get a whiff. It smells a lot like an armpit that hasn’t been washed in a month. Taken all around, this is not the kind of wildflower you’d feel inclined to gather a bunch of and take home to stick in a vase. But, appearing with the robins and redwing blackbirds, it is nevertheless a welcome harbinger of the warmer months. I’m surprised that some Michigan town hasn’t claimed it and instituted an annual skunk cabbage festival. Not too surprised, though.

Speaking of warmer months, they don’t seem to be in any hurry to put in an appearance, and I’m starting to wonder whether Punxatawney Phil might not have been conservative in his forecast of another six weeks of winter. Another major winter storm is poised to dump another 6-10″ of snow on West Michigan this evening through tomorrow, and more snow is in the forecast for the next ten days.

Snow, snow, and yet again snow. If you like the stuff, just stick around. Sooner or later, Michigan always delivers.

February 21, 2010 by
Filed Under: Life, Michigan, Nature, Outdoors, Weather Tagged With: , , , , , ,

More Winter Weather for the South? More Long-Range Musings from a Michigan Snow Grinch

There’s talk about another round of snow hitting the South toward the end of February. It’s a bit strange to see how much discussion goes on about snowfall as an anomaly when here in Michigan, it’s a way of life. Today, snow was in the forecast in the Grand Rapids area. But that’s the norm in February. I’m used to looking out the window and seeing snow in its various forms: big, fat, fluffy flakes; small, sharp, crystalline flakes; hard, dry graupel that bounces off the sidewalk like Styrofoam crumbs; frigid diamond-chips that barely qualify as snow, they’re so fine and so tremendously cold, cold, cold.

The snow du jour on this fine, wintry Monday has been the big stuff–merry, white clumps cascading by the billions out of the mid-February sky, twirling, diving, swooping, soaring, pirouetting on the wind–snow that looks as if God sliced open an enormous feather pillow and has been emptying its contents in fits and starts over my hometown of Caledonia. I grudgingly admit, snow Grinch that I am, that it has been a darn pretty sight.

Yes, you heard me say it. Even an avowed, long-time loather of snow such as I has his moments, times when the beauty of winter transcends its miseries and those dancing flakes warm my attitude with their frozen magic. It’s a bit easier to admit to toward the end of an El Nino winter that has been less snowy than usual.

Nevertheless, I’ve never taken the kind of interest in winter weather that I have in warm-weather convection. I don’t make a habit of following forecast models daily in February, I possess only a rudimentary understanding of their interpretation at this time of year, and I get caught by surprise by events that blizzard enthusiasts have been following with eager eyes. You maybe can’t understand my indifference unless you’ve lived in a place where the snow is going to come to you whether you look for it or not, and you will be scraping plenty of it, along with generous portions of ice, off your car windshield for four or five months.

So, is the South due for another round of snow in a week or so? I dunno. Out of curiosity, I ran a GFS snowfall totals loop out to 384 hours a little while ago, and it suggests a pretty good dumping, beginning in Pennsylvania and parts east–why am I not surprised?–and then spreading the joy to northern Oklahoma, Missouri, and Tennessee as another system moves through. That’s probably the system that folks are harping about. But as everyone knows and everyone is quick to say, it’s still a long way out, and nobody knows for sure what’s going to happen right now. That’s particularly true for someone like me, who hasn’t bothered to cultivate winter forecasting skills in a place where snow is as inevitable as death and taxes, and for many, only slightly more enjoyable.

A little dark humor there, folks. Don’t hold it against me if you’re one who loves snow. You’re welcome to remove as much of it as you wish from my vehicle for free, take it home with you, and enjoy it to your heart’s content. Come, ease your craving. I call that a generous offer. But act soon! It’s only good through April.

February 15, 2010 by
Filed Under: Humor, Life, Outdoors, Weather Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Historical Winter Weather from a Classic El Nino

By now we can all agree that this has been one wild winter, with wave after wave of major winter storms pummeling large sections of the nation.

According to an NCDC (National Climatic Data Center) snowfall map, the state of Maryland saw as much as 48 inches of snow this past week, between February 5 and 11. Southern Pennsylvania got even more snow, up to 54 inches.

A Snowman in Dallas

Spectacular as the Winter Weather Olympics have been out east, they’ve by no means been the only show in town. Oklahoma, Tennessee, even Texas, have gotten clobbered over these past few weeks with a smorgasbord of every conceivable type of winter precip, from freezing rain to record snowfalls to blizzard conditions. Yesterday, my brother Brian, who lives in Dallas, sent me a photograph of my little nephew, Sam, standing next to a big ol’ snowman in the front yard. In Brian’s message, he wrote that this has been the first time that enough snow has fallen in Dallas to make a snowman since he moved to North Texas over 25 years ago.

But Wait! There’s More!

All of the above is just this week’s weather. Farther back, from January 27-30, a nasty weather system rolled through the South and East, providing plenty of entertainment for folks from the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, to Nashville, to Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, DC. According to the NCDC, “Snowfall amounts greater than 10 inches (25 cm) were reported in New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, and Maryland. Freezing rain of over 1 inch (2.5 cm) was reported across Oklahoma and Texas, with many locations also receiving several inches of snowfall and sleet in addition to the ice.”

As I write, the bridge over Lake Ponchartrain in New Orleans has been closed due to winter weather, and…hold it, we have a news flash…0.2 inches of snow has fallen at the airport in Mobile, Alabama, the first measurable snowfall there in twelve years.

Meanwhile, while we up here in Michigan are staring out at a decent blanket left by Tuesday’s snowstorm–10 inches fell in the Caledonia area–yet overall, we’ve gotten nothing like last year’s 200-inch winter. Rather, according to the NCDC, Michigan has experienced its eighth driest January on record.

Blame It All on El Nino

From what I can see, this year’s history-making weather anomalies are the result of a classic, strong El Nino. Weather patterns get flip-flopped during El Nino years. Generally speaking, the South gets cooler-than-average temperatures and abundant precipitation, while north-central states see above-average temperatures and less precipitation. My state, Michigan, lies somewhat in no-man’s land, shifting between normal to warmer, drier conditions.

One thing is certain: for those living in drought-plagued areas, their problems have ended, at least for a while. From the Southeast to the Southwest, there’s no lack of moisture. Last year, central Texas was in the throes of a severe drought; today, its cup runneth over. All indications are that, whatever issues this year’s storm chasing season may encounter, anemic dewpoints won’t be one of them.

We’ll be finding out for sure soon. In a little over two weeks, March will be here. Meteorological spring. Can you feel it in your blood? Frankly, I have a hunch that the early convective season isn’t going to be very eventful, but it’s good just to know that Big Thunder is on the way. It may not be exactly knocking on the door just yet, but it’s only a couple blocks down the street and getting closer every day.

February 12, 2010 by
Filed Under: Nature, Storm Chasing, Weather Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Major Winter Storm Headed for the Great Lakes

We may not get socked with anything quite as bad as the three feet of snow that got dumped on Maryland a few days ago, but lower Michigan is poised for a major snow slam starting tomorrow morning. The current warning text from GRR reads as follows:

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO
1 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM DAYBREAK TUESDAY THROUGH
   WEDNESDAY MORNING.

 * THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 94
   CORRIDOR WHERE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE
   INTERSTATE 96 CORRIDOR WILL SEE 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW...
   WHICH INCLUDES GRAND RAPIDS AND LANSING.

 * SNOW WILL BEGIN TUESDAY MORNING AND BECOME HEAVY FOR LATE
   TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

 * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
   THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
   MPH.

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Here’s what the NAM-based F5 proprietary snowfall total shows for Wednesday at 18Z. (Click on the image to enlarge it.) The GFS moves things more to the south and probably is a bit more in line with the NWS forecast. But either way, tomorrow is going to be very different from the beautiful day we’ve had here today in West Michigan.

Well, what else can we expect? It’s early February, after all, and the groundhog probably was spot-on in his forecast for six more weeks of winter. I guess that explains why there’s open season on groundhogs in Michigan.

February 8, 2010 by
Filed Under: Life, Nature, Outdoors, Weather Tagged With: , , , , , ,
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