Historical Winter Weather from a Classic El Nino

By now we can all agree that this has been one wild winter, with wave after wave of major winter storms pummeling large sections of the nation.

According to an NCDC (National Climatic Data Center) snowfall map, the state of Maryland saw as much as 48 inches of snow this past week, between February 5 and 11. Southern Pennsylvania got even more snow, up to 54 inches.

A Snowman in Dallas

Spectacular as the Winter Weather Olympics have been out east, they’ve by no means been the only show in town. Oklahoma, Tennessee, even Texas, have gotten clobbered over these past few weeks with a smorgasbord of every conceivable type of winter precip, from freezing rain to record snowfalls to blizzard conditions. Yesterday, my brother Brian, who lives in Dallas, sent me a photograph of my little nephew, Sam, standing next to a big ol’ snowman in the front yard. In Brian’s message, he wrote that this has been the first time that enough snow has fallen in Dallas to make a snowman since he moved to North Texas over 25 years ago.

But Wait! There’s More!

All of the above is just this week’s weather. Farther back, from January 27-30, a nasty weather system rolled through the South and East, providing plenty of entertainment for folks from the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, to Nashville, to Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, DC. According to the NCDC, “Snowfall amounts greater than 10 inches (25 cm) were reported in New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, and Maryland. Freezing rain of over 1 inch (2.5 cm) was reported across Oklahoma and Texas, with many locations also receiving several inches of snowfall and sleet in addition to the ice.”

As I write, the bridge over Lake Ponchartrain in New Orleans has been closed due to winter weather, and…hold it, we have a news flash…0.2 inches of snow has fallen at the airport in Mobile, Alabama, the first measurable snowfall there in twelve years.

Meanwhile, while we up here in Michigan are staring out at a decent blanket left by Tuesday’s snowstorm–10 inches fell in the Caledonia area–yet overall, we’ve gotten nothing like last year’s 200-inch winter. Rather, according to the NCDC, Michigan has experienced its eighth driest January on record.

Blame It All on El Nino

From what I can see, this year’s history-making weather anomalies are the result of a classic, strong El Nino. Weather patterns get flip-flopped during El Nino years. Generally speaking, the South gets cooler-than-average temperatures and abundant precipitation, while north-central states see above-average temperatures and less precipitation. My state, Michigan, lies somewhat in no-man’s land, shifting between normal to warmer, drier conditions.

One thing is certain: for those living in drought-plagued areas, their problems have ended, at least for a while. From the Southeast to the Southwest, there’s no lack of moisture. Last year, central Texas was in the throes of a severe drought; today, its cup runneth over. All indications are that, whatever issues this year’s storm chasing season may encounter, anemic dewpoints won’t be one of them.

We’ll be finding out for sure soon. In a little over two weeks, March will be here. Meteorological spring. Can you feel it in your blood? Frankly, I have a hunch that the early convective season isn’t going to be very eventful, but it’s good just to know that Big Thunder is on the way. It may not be exactly knocking on the door just yet, but it’s only a couple blocks down the street and getting closer every day.

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