We Will Miss You, Eric Flescher

No man is an island entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main.

If a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as well as any manner of thy friends or of thine own were. Any man’s death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind.

And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.

–John Donne

Yesterday, March 2, 2010, the bell tolled for Dr. Eric Flescher, and in tolling for him, it tolled for us all. We in the storm chasing community are diminished by the loss of a good, decent man whose passion for life was matched with a gentle, friendly spirit.

I never met Eric in person, but, like many on Stormtrack, I swapped plenty of messages with him, enough that I considered him a long-distance friend whom I looked forward to meeting. Last year he had let me know that his door was open if I needed a place to overnight while out chasing, and I was struck by his generosity and hospitality.

I never made it out to Kansas City in 2009, but I had hoped to finally connect with Eric face to face this spring. I regret that now I will not get the opportunity to sit down with him and talk about storm chasing, and about carnivorous plants, another passion of Eric’s that he and I shared. He was so proud of that Nepenthes ampullaria! And he was able to successfully grow a cobra lily–no small accomplishment.

To say that Eric was a storm chaser captures just one facet of him. He was a Renaissance man with a broad variety of interests ranging from severe weather, to astronomy, to carnivorous plants, to cooking, and more. Those who knew him better than I can no doubt add plenty of other items to the list. But in the storm chasing community, he was known foremost as a fellow chaser, and judging from the responses to ongoing news of his condition since early last December, and now of his death, he clearly was a very well-liked and respected chaser whom many counted as their friend.

In my five years on Stormtrack, I never once saw Eric enter into the sniping and flame wars that have lit up the forums, or demean another member, or utter a bad word about anyone. Not ever. And I never saw a bad word written about Eric. Those who wrote to him or of him expressed only appreciation and respect. In a community of diverse, colorful, and opinionated personalities, to be able to say such things about Eric is a tribute to his character and his stature.

Today I am saddened by Eric’s death. His wife, Sue Ellen, will deeply miss her beloved husband; many of us will miss our friend; and all of us will miss a gentle, decent, passionate man whose presence made both the chaser community and the world in general a better place.

Forecast Model Simulations for 1965 Palm Sunday Tornadoes: Part 1

Today I’m making the trip to State College, Pennsylvania, where I’ll be overnighting and then meeting tomorrow with operational and research meteorologist David Beachler at the CCX National Weather Service office.

Earlier this year–thanks to John Laurens at KGRR, who contacted him on my behalf–David took such forecasting data as exists on the 1965 Palm Sunday Tornadoes and ran it through a computer. (That’s putting it quite simply, I’m sure.) The result is a veritable blizzard of hourly model simulations which I’m hoping to narrow down to something that can give me new insights into the second worst Great Lakes/Midwest tornado outbreak of modern times. If all goes well, one of the results well be an engaging scenario for the storm chasing community.

Of course, a project of this nature will take some refining. The first hurdle is my own ignorance as a non-meteorologist. It’s one thing for a layman like me to use forecast models in identifying target areas for storm chases; it’s another thing to understand the whys and wherefores of those models.

A second challenge is to sift through the accuracy of the data, since we’re talking about a massive amount of extrapolation from a paucity of decades-old source material; and a third is to distill the immensity of info that David has provided into a reasonably straightforward, meaningful synopsis.

What I’m hoping for, in the end, is a series of surface and upper-air charts that can answer the question, “If the same synoptic conditions that produced the Palm Sunday Tornadoes unfolded today, what might we see in the models from a few days out until the time when tornadoes started dropping?”

This project has been in the wings for a while as part of a larger project which I’m keeping mum about for now. I want to get this part taken care of first, and I’m excited that I’m finally getting to meet with David and go over the data with him, so I can better understand how to interpret it and narrow down a selection from it that will be most useful. I’m extremely appreciative of David’s work, and his willingness to help me sift through it.

Gotta go. I need to hit the road in a couple hours. Here’s hoping for good driving.

The Farmers’ Almanac, Woolly Bears, and Government Cover-Ups

Given the unreliability of long-range forecast models, there’s a lot of justifiable skepticism in the storm chasing community when someone (like me, for instance) talks about an event that’s 120 or more hours out. Beyond maybe three days, trying to forecast weather events becomes increasingly like reading tea leaves. We watch the ECMWF and GFS for signs of agreement and consistency, and if they start showing up, we cross our fingers, knowing that a lot can happen between now and payday.

So I’m not sure what to think when the revered Farmers’ Alamanac gazes into its crystal ball and issues with serene confidence the following prognostication for the Great Lakes region:

November 2009
1st-3rd. Sunny, with increasing clouds. 4th-7th. Rain spreads in from the west. Turning clear and frosty. 8th-11th. Rapid temperature changes. Storm moves east, with heavy rain or wet snow. Frigid cold air follows. 12th-15th. New storm moves into Great Lakes. Heavy rain and/or wet snow. Then clearing and very cold. 16th-19th. Storm sweeps across the area, followed by very cold air. Fast-moving storm, reaching the region by the 19th. Heavy snow, followed by colder air. 20th-23rd. Cold Canadian front brings rain and thunderstorms for the Great Lakes region. 24th-27th. A wet Thanksgiving.  28th-30th. Few rain or wet snow showers. Turning colder.

December 2009
1st-3rd. Rain and wet snow shift into the Great Lakes, south to Kentucky, followed by clear and cold weather. 4th-7th. Storm Ohio River Basin deposits heavy rain and wet snow. Very cold air follows. 8th-11th. A “winterlude” for Great Lakes and the Ohio River Basin. Temperatures still well below seasonal norms. 12th-15th. Scattered snow showers and flurries. 16th-19th. Considerable cloudiness over most areas, but little precipitation. Nights are seasonably cold, days are mild. 20th-23rd. Rain and/or snow.

Not being a climatologist, I’m unaware of what sophisticated meteorological resources the Farmers’ Almanac may be tapping into. Possibly they’ve been consulting woolly bear caterpillars. According to folklore, you can tell how severe the winter will be by the ratio of brown to black banding on the woolly bears. Plenty of brown means a mild winter; wide black bands with little brown points to a nasty snow season. A few weeks ago, I found an all-black woolly bear. I knew that couldn’t be good.

If only we could get the woolly bears to cooperate when storm chasing season is underway. But the little critters have other things on their minds by then, namely, pupating and becoming Isabella tiger moths. So I guess we’re stuck with the Euro and the GFS. Or sacrificing chickens, though the research supporting the link between chicken sacrifice and improved storm intercepts is slim.

No doubt the government is covering up the information, just like they do everything that’s related to severe weather. They want us to remain ignorant, unsuspecting guinea pigs while the weather gods at Norman conduct their insidious experiments, using their array of antennas and radars to generate monster tornadoes 400 miles away and then guide them unerringly through populated areas. Take the May 13 Kirksville, Missouri, tornado, for instance. That one had Government Issue written all over it. The lack of a single shred of substantiating evidence just goes to show how expert Big Brother is at keeping the truth hidden.*

That’s why you’ll find no NOAA papers correlating tornado outbreaks and chicken sacrifice. Same with woolly bears and long, hard winters–though the Farmers’ Alamanac folks, bless their hearts, have obviously made the connection, and hence, they have the weather for November and December pretty well locked in. I call that kind of forecasting ability reassuring.

As for the rest of us, well, we’ve got the ECMWF, the GFS, and tea leaves. How do you like your tea?

_______

* The following disclaimer is intended only for those who take me seriously: I’M JUST KIDDING! Sad that I’ve even got to say it, but the truth is, some folks out there do in fact believe some damn crazy things about the government’s ability to manipulate the weather. I’m not one of them, and I wouldn’t want to be mistaken for such.

That being said, I would love to see the SPC’s research on chicken sacrifice and tornadogenesis.