The Last Snows of Winter

As I begin this post, it’s snowing outside.

Spring has sprung, and it’s snowing.

All irony aside, there’s nothing particularly unusual about that this time of year. Late March through mid-April are prone to the residual effects of winter. Fuzzy catkins may cover the pussy willows in the marshes, skunk cabbages bloom in the swamps and wet woods, and robins pogo across the lawns in search of earthworms, but that doesn’t mean the snows are entirely done with us.

See for yourself. Here’s the radar for my area from just a few minutes ago.

GR2 radar scan shows a snowy afternoon in West Michigan.

GR2 radar scan shows a snowy afternoon in West Michigan.

I don’t mind. Even though the forecast through the week calls for colder temperatures and an occasional dusting of the white stuff, I know it’s all just transitory. We’ve already seen 70 degree temperatures and had our first lightning storm. Today is just winter being a poor loser.

Me, I’m looking ahead. The wildflowers and the weather systems are waking up together, and with the year’s first, shakedown storm chase in Tornado Alley already under my belt, I’m content in knowing that the main action is now mere weeks away.

Bring it on. I’m ready!

March 29, 2009 by
Filed Under: Life, Nature, Outdoors, Storm Chasing, Weather Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Preparing for Storm Season 2009

Out of curiosity, I just ran the GFS down to 384 hours. The SPC has posted a light risk for parts of the South on Wednesday, but that may be just a foretaste of an upcoming active period. Did I already write about this recently? Not sure, but if so, I’m writing again.

Long-range prognostication is something like reading tea leaves, but consulting the numerical models still beats going to a groundhog for your two-week weather forecast. At around 204 hours, a nice surge of moisture appears to unlock the the Gulf of Mexico for several days, with 55 degree  dewpoints extending as far north as Missouri, southern Illinois, and Indiana.

Am I hanging my hat on this? Heck no. I’m just thinking, quite wistfully, how nice it would be if what I just saw bore some resemblance to how things actually play out nine days hence. In February, one dreams if he’s a northerner and shudders if he’s a resident of Dixie Alley.

I’m anxious to to see some great storms this year. Last year was fabulous, but I blew some great photo ops because I didn’t know how to use my camera. This year I think I’ve overcome that concern. Now if only the weather and my finances will cooperate.

Meanwhile, I’ve decided to make the best of the holding pattern by signing up for Tim Vasquez’s severe weather forecasting class. It’s a small group setting that will be held on Sunday, March 8, in Norman, Oklahoma. I just shelled out my hundred bucks today and am really looking forward to attending this thing. My chase partner, Bill Oosterbaan, will be joining me. This ought to be a perfect way to really tighten down our forecasting skills for storm chasing season 2009 by learning from one of the foremost gurus of the field. I own nearly all of Tim’s books, and also his Forecast Laboratory software. It’ll be cool to finally pick his brain for eight hours in a focused, fairly personal setting.

More immediately, though, this evening the sun set at 6:17 here in Caledonia, and tomorrow the temperature is supposed to spike to a sweltering 36 degrees. I’ll take that and like it for now. It presages good things to come.

February 16, 2009 by
Filed Under: Life, Storm Chasing, Tornadoes, Weather Tagged With: , , , , , , , , ,

GroundHog Day

Today is Groundhog Day. I don’t know whether Punxatawney Phil saw his shadow, but I have to say, I’m not willing to live or die by his abilities as a long-range weather forecaster. When it comes to chewing on roots and leaves, groundhogs’ abilities shine; as meteorologists, though, I’m less inclined to place much confidence in them.

Besides, this business of a groundhog seeing his shadow could hang on a matter of a minute or two. The day here in Michigan started out cloudy–lousy weather for viewing shadows. By around 2:15, it had cleared up, the sun was shining, and shadows could be had for cheap. Maybe Pennsylvania experienced similar circumstances, I don’t know. Did Phil go on the prowl for his shadow in the morning or the afternoon? That could make a difference. If you ask me, it all seems pretty arbitrary.

I have more confidence in the forecast models. Even though next week’s surge of moisture is a week away, I’ve got something reasonably substantial to pin my expectations on. This is the time of year when I start to get my hopes up. Action in Dixie Alley next Sunday or Monday? Could be. Looks like mid-fifties dewpoints may work their way as far north as southern Illinois. Right now, it’s just conjecture, wishcasting. But overall, while ol’ Phil seems like a nice enough fellow, I think the GFS packs a bit more credibility when it comes to the weather.

February 2, 2009 by
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