March: When Daylight Lengthens

Today is March 6, and between the first day of the month till now we have already gained fourteen minutes of daylight here in Caledonia, Michigan. By the end of the month, that figure will have grown to an hour and 29 minutes–52 minutes in the morning and 37 in the evening. That averages out to a gain of around 2.9 minutes every day.

March is the month when daylight happens.

Small wonder that storm chasers do a happy dance when March 1 arrives. It’s designated the beginning of meteorological spring for good reason. Henceforth the days are poised to lengthen rapidly. The sun is climbing higher in its arc over the northern hemisphere, putting in a longer workday and shining more intensely. That means warmer temperatures, juicier dewpoints, and increasing instability. Things start happening. The new storm season’s convective pump is getting primed, and preludes of the next few months start showing up on the radar.

So why complain about March? It may not be pretty, but it loves ya.

Yet Another Update: Huge Progress!

I know I’ve been posting a lot of status updates concerning Stormhorn.com. Maybe I’m guilty of overkill, but I feel it’s better to let you know what’s going on with this blog than keep you wondering.

And the fact is, a LOT has been going on. I should have scrapped my old NexGen plugin weeks ago, done the reinstall, and gotten on with replacing my image files. I didn’t because all I could think was, “Oh, man, all those files!” Nearly 500 of them. But as it turns out, reinstalling them hasn’t been nearly the prolonged hassle that I thought it would be–not that it isn’t time-consuming grunt work, but the process is moving along just fine. Much better, in fact, than I expected.

Image Files Are Now Largely Restored

That’s right–I’ve got the bulk of my galleries back in place. The work certainly isn’t finished, but right now, if you go to my photo page, you’ll see that most of what used to be there is back where it was. Well, sort of. I took the opportunity to do a little reorganizing, but that’s a good thing that brings a little more order to my collection. Anyway, just about all of my storm photos are back in place. Ditto my wildflower, bird, and other images. Check ’em out!

The CopyFox Has Reopened for Business

One of the worst parts of this whole debacle was having to take my CopyFox page and subpages offline. There was no alternative. Nothing looks worse than a copywriting business site that’s having communication issues!

But huzzah! The days of woe are past and the time of jubilation is at hand! The CopyFox now has its very own website, which is how things should have been from the beginning. Bang the drums, bring on the jugglers and dancing bears, and let there be music in the streets! And by all means, check out the site at www.thecopyfox.com.

What Still Needs Doing

Now that I’ve got the bulk of my image files downloaded, I need to sift through my posts one by one and restore images to their proper places. There are also plenty of galleries that still need to be downloaded.

But so much has already been accomplished. This blog is essentially well on its way to complete recovery. And even as I sort backwards through past posts, you may notice that Stormhorn.com is also moving ahead with new posts that will keep storm chasers current on the incoming spring weather season and equip jazz musicians with fresh food for thought and material for the woodshed.

So there you have it. The news is all good. Thanks for your continued interest and loyalty to this site as it endures its growing pains. I’ve been amazed and encouraged to see that traffic has not only remained consistent through the worst of it, but now appears to be experiencing some impressive growth. Having changed to a new web host, I’m not sure yet how accurate my WordPress stats are–perhaps they are inflating the numbers and need to settle in a bit; but I think that Awstats is pretty dependable, and assuming that’s the case, then March is off to an awesome start.

So again, thanks for bearing with me. And stay tuned, because repairs are being made rapidly at this point.

Goodonya,

Bob

First Day of Meteorological Spring!

IT’S SPRING!!! Spring, spring, springity spring SPRIIIIIINNNG! O joy! O rapture! It’s springspringspringspringwonderfulwonderfulspring!!!!!!!!!!!

And lest I forget to mention it–it’s spring!

Oh, I know, you’re thinking I’ve lost my mind. Unless, of course, you’re a storm chaser or a meteorologist, in which case you know exactly what I’m talking about. As for the rest of you, forget about that old astronomical calendar that wants to make us all wait almost three more weeks for spring to arrive. That way of thinking is so passe, so limiting. Embrace a new outlook full of fresh, springy-sproingy possibilities. Think meteorological spring, which begins March 1–today!

This is the day all you storm chasers have been looking forward to, and I know from reading a couple of your notes on Facebook that a good number of you have been doing air somersaults and cartwheels. You’re happier than Tigger on pot, and I don’t blame you one bit, because we all know what has just entered the room: Storm Season 2011.

That’s right, boys and girls. Dust off your laptops, put your hail helmets in the back seat, and pour yourselves a nice, stiff shot of Rain-X, because it’s time for a toast. Here’s to moisture rolling in from the Gulf. Here’s to a higher sun, warmer temperatures, and longer days. Here’s to strong mid-level jets, deep lows, and gonzoid helicities. I wish you all safe chasing and classic supercells, my friends, and ample reason for steak and beer at the end of your outings.

L’chaim!

Let the games begin. It’s spring!

Guest Post: Roger Edwards Looks at the High Cost of Indiscriminate Budget Slashing in Public Safety

Roger Edwards is a great guy–a Dallas Cowboy fan, family man, writer, photographer, and down-to-earth Renaissance man. He’s also a name anyone involved in storm chasing is either quite familiar with or else ought to be. When the man talks about severe weather, his words pack the clout of not only a veteran chaser, but also one of today’s foremost authorities on his subject.

With his wife, Elke, Roger maintains an engaging online presence in their blogs Stormeyes and Weather or Not, as well as in the scholarly Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology. Besides being a prominent weather scientist and forecasting expert, Roger is also a deep thinker and a superb writer whose passion for the world around him colors his words. I’m delighted and honored to feature him as my guest. Given free rein to expound on whatever topic was hot upon him, Roger took a direction I didn’t expect. His message is a timely one that speaks not only to all those of us who, like Roger, “feast on the smorgasbord of atmospheric violence,” but also to everyone–and “everyone” here means everyone–who is impacted by services of our government that are essential to public safety and health.

There, Roger–how’s that for an introduction? Now I’ll shut up and let you take the microphone.

Protection of Life and Property: The Necessary Government Role

By Roger Edwards

I am writing not as a government employee tasked with protection of life and property through severe storm forecasts. Nor am I writing as a member of an employees’ union that is publicizing the most draconian possibilities, as whispered to them by an inner sanctum of upper management (who, unlike the union, can’t legally lobby).

Instead, I type on my own behalf as a taxpayer and private citizen who just happens to be intimately familiar on a personal level with the front-line impacts of some asinine and infantile political posturing that’s happening right now in Washington, DC.

Disagreement on how to finish paying for the rest of this fiscal year threatens either a shutdown of “non-essentials” or a budget that slices the daylights out of many that are both essential and not. “Essential” means law enforcement, military, utilities, storm forecasting, air-traffic control, prisons, border patrol, and other such activities that directly affect public safety and that aren’t necessarily 9-to-5 day jobs. Essential employees are not paid during a shutdown, but are required to report to work as “emergency” personnel. I am included in that, as part of a 24/7/365 storm-forecasting group.

The most extreme budget scenarios for the rest of fiscal 2011 (through October) could result in rolling closure of both warning offices and national forecasting centers, along with unpaid furloughs lasting weeks at a time. That would be insane, headed into both peak tornado and hurricane seasons. What a crappy, backhanded “reward” for the dedication and effort that severe weather and hurricane forecasters devote every day and night…all day, all night. (Don’t worry, I never would resort to faking illness like those lying liars in Wisconsin…I actually am honest, and care too much about my duty!)

Politicians of both parties, in their zeal (and however noble the principles) are ignorantly unaware of the truth that not all government is equally useful, and that the most valuable and necessary government functions are those that protect life and property…period! In any democratic (lower-case “d”) system, all else is secondary to public safety as a responsibility of a government.

Here’s the ugly reality: Those life-saving functions that mean the most are typically small and focused, scattered and buried throughout numerous much bigger agencies full of bloat. In the tangled mess of government bureaucracy, the needed is interwoven with the unneeded, the important with the optional, the efficient with the wasteful–sometimes very tightly! You can argue that it’s partly by design, in order to use the lifesaving functions as human shields against elimination of the wasteful rubbish. I’ll fully grant that it could be a valid argument and a tactic used by some politicians to protect sacred pork.

But it’s still reality. To remove the unnecessary areas in shrinking big government is a good thing, done very selectively. But most elected officials don’t understand this and try to engage in shortsighted slashing that throws babies out with bathwater.

Meanwhile, as in the current standoff over a looming “shutdown,” those government employees engaged in protection of life and property are used as pawns for show. It’s a dirty, rotten, slimy game of political brinkmanship brought about by the shortsighted spending practices of Congresses and administrations of both parties, past and present.

Such childish foolishness, purely for the sake of posturing, cuts the meat and bone under the fat. It’s happened before, it’s nothing new, and it’s ridiculous. The strategy: Threaten to cut the visible, necessary stuff–like storm forecasting, air-traffic control, meat inspection, border security, law enforcement, anti-terror and such–to cover for fiscal irresponsibility on the unnecessary rubbish. It is a time-honed ploy, definitely bad for the country, and speaks to the immaturity and ignorance of politicians in general.

Does fiscal austerity need to happen? Absolutely! Liberals as a whole, and fiscally liberal Republicans, cannot bury their heads in the sand anymore and ignore the national debt. Think of the less-than-worst scenarios that may result as short-term pain for long-term gain.

Public debt is out of control. That’s an overwhelming national consensus. We all need to make sacrifices to cover for past and current fiscal irresponsibility by politicians of all parties. I support smart, targeted cutting of government, starting with the fat.

Notice that I have not complained about the salary freeze, which includes my own. It’s only fair that all government employees sacrifice some. If I now can’t buy a new violin for my daughter in orchestra because the family budget needs to be tightened, because it’s better for the country…it’s unfortunate, but that’s life. Others are far worse off!

Answer this, however: Do politicians have a history of smart, targeted streamlining of swollen government? Do politicians have a track record of taking intelligent, careful time and consideration, or do they instead resort to short-fused, publicity-grabbing, slash-and-burn, one-size-fits-all grandstanding?

To answer that, watch the news and read the stories today, where Democrats blame Republicans, Republicans are blaming Democrats and each other, and back-and-forth grandstanding commands the press. Then think back to past government “shutdowns” such as that at the end of 1995 and early 1996, or 1990 (each of which happened since I’ve been involved). Republicans or Democrats in the Presidency, Republicans or Democrats in Congress, none are blameless in the sort of showboating and lack of foresight that allows the federal budget sickness to get this far.

I’m here to tell you that life-saving functions must not be chopped. That includes storm forecasting.

Consider both sides of this coin.

Five cents. This gleaming little Jefferson is about how much NOAA (which includes the National Weather Service) costs each of us taxpayers each day. Some of that involves all the people and machines that enable forecasts of both dangerous and calm weather. Some of NOAA admittedly involves top-heavy layers of management and bureaucracy above the front-line workers. Much of those are glad-handing, paper-pushing, suit-and-tie roles that I see as not absolutely necessary, and that could and should be trimmed. Yet when those very bureaucrats are ordered to make recommendations for cuts, do you think they will be targeting their own jobs? If you do, I’ve got land about a hundred miles south of New Orleans to sell you.

Life-saving nickels are being swept off the pavement right in front of an out-of-control dump truck overflowing with borrowed zillion-dollar bills, representing entitlements and other giant-scale spending that needs to be braked first. Politicians generally don’t have the courage to do that, nor the understanding to thoughtfully focus merit-based cuts elsewhere. The chopping devolves into a blind, mindless, one-size-fits-all exercise; hence, we must take the bad with the good, the inefficient with the necessary, hoping someone with patience and courage eventually conducts a long, careful, well-informed, and elaborate trim inside each bureaucracy with a very fine and efficient surgical knife.

Ask yourself something more: Are national and local severe storm outlooks, tornado watches and warnings, hurricane watches and warnings, winter storm watches and warnings, and every other daily forecast, worth five cents? You decide. And if you say yes, tell your elected officials in no uncertain terms.

===== Roger Edwards =====
American taxpayer and
severe weather scientist

New Website on 1965 Palm Sunday Tornadoes (and the Truth about “The Twins”)

Someone has finally done it. Elkhart County native Jenni Siri has set about developing a website dedicated to the 20th century’s second worst tornado outbreak, the infamous 1965 Palm Sunday Outbreak. Like me, Jenni has been shaped by the outbreak in a way that has remained with her. In her website, she has provided a forum for survivors of that day to share their experiences.

A few days ago, in an email exchange, I shared my thoughts with Jenni concerning a peculiar controversy which arose out of the Palm Sunday event. It concerns what is probably the most celebrated tornado photograph of all time: Elkhart Truth photographer Paul Huffman’s award-winning photo of twin funnels sweeping across US 33 between Goshen and Elkhart, Indiana.

In his newspaper account, Huffman described the tornado approaching and demolishing the Midway Trailer Court. Yet others have insisted that they saw “The Twins,” as they have been called, strike the Sunnyside Division in Dunlap, nearly 3 miles up the road.

Who is right? After nearly 50 years, the issue still persists. Can it ever be settled?

I believe both sides of The Twins controversy have told the truth about what they saw, and I have a very good reason for thinking so. When I shared my thoughts with Jenni, she asked whether I’d be willing to post them on her site. I had planned to save my theory for my book on the Palm Sunday Tornadoes, but that book is taking a long time to write. Meanwhile, why not try to resolve a conflict which, to my thinking, was never necessary. There’s an explanation that makes truth-tellers out of everyone, liars out of no one, and strikes me as just plain common sense.

But you can’t read it here. Believe me, once I finished my writeup, I was sorely tempted to post it in this blog! But a promise is a promise after all. So instead, I invite you to check out my article, “The Truth about ‘The Twins,'” on Jenni’s excellent site.

This Year’s Regional Focus for Tornadoes: What Do YOU Think?

My last post has now got me thinking ahead to the spring weather season. I’m going to do something I haven’t done before on this blog: rather than share my thoughts, I’m going to ask you for yours.

Here’s the question: What part of the country do you think the focus for tornadoes will be this year? Southern plains, northern plains, farther east…where and how do you think things will play out, and why?

This isn’t a hardcore survey. It’s for fun and curiosity to see how people think. Please click the “comment” tab to respond. If I get a few meaty, thoughtful responses, I’ll share the highlights and interact with them in another post.

Bear in mind that this is a La Nina year. While no research exists that solidly establishes a link between La Nina and tornado outbreaks east of the Mississippi, nevertheless statistics show a correlation. It’s one among various things to consider in what will probably still end up as a roll of the dice. The weather just doesn’t care about our reasonings! But it’s still fun to think about this topic, and a few months from now will tell how close (or far off) we were.

So, what part of the United States do you think will keep storm chasers busy this spring–or will this be a dead year for tornadoes? Lean in and give your nickel’s worth.

Warming Trend through February

Today temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 30s here in West Michigan, and by Friday they should be well into the forties. With a little luck, we may even see our first 50-degree day of the year. This warming trend has been no secret, and it’s the kind of thing that draws me out of my wintertime apathy about weather maps and whets my curiosity. The next week seems pretty well defined, but what lies beyond the horizon?

So this morning I did something I haven’t done for quite a while: I peered into the magic 8 ball of the 6Z GFS all the way out to 372 hours, to the forecast hour of 18Z Monday, February 28. My point in doing so was to get a sense of what general trend might be shaping up. What I see is the beginning of springtime incursions of warmer air. Not to say that we up here in the northwoods can don our swimsuits and head for the beach, but it looks like this week may mark the end of the long stretches of bitterly cold weather. We could see more days near or above freezing, and at times up into the forties, rather than in the 20s and teens.

In just two more weeks meteorological spring will arrive. Granted its foibles, overall the long-range GFS appears to be rolling out the carpet. We’re not there yet, friends, but today’s warmup offers a view from the hilltop and the end is in sight. We’ve almost made it through another winter.

The Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011

blizzard3-2011The cloud tops are up to 20,000 feet here in Caledonia, and about two minutes ago the first impressively bright flash of lightning lit the blizzard swirling around my apartment. Thundersnow! Rare, but  not unexpected tonight, and now that it has arrived, I’m continuing to see sporadic flickers of lightning. That initial one was a doozy, though, and all I can think is, Cool! How often does one get to hear thunder rumble through the teeth of a February blizzard?

Man, is it blowing out there!

All eyes have been on this winter storm for the past several days, watching it move from forecast models into reality. Nowcloud-tops-2011here it is, and it is a humdinger. Anywhere from a minimum of 12 up to 16 inches of snow is predicted to dump on our area, and south of us it only gets worse. Pink is the color that indicates heavy snowfall on my radar color table, and I don’t recall ever seeing such a large expanse of it covering my screen before. Between now and sometime tomorrow morning is when the heaviest snowfall is supposed to occur, and looking outside my window at the maelstrom swirling dimly out of the midnight sky, I see nothing to contradict that prognosis.

blizzard4-2011Ah! Another flash of lightning and another rumble of thunder! This is nice. Imagine that–me, an avowed snow grinch, enjoying a blizzard! But I have to say, this storm appears to be living up to all expectations. I honestly don’t recall that I’ve ever experienced thundersnow before, so I’m really pleased to be getting such a novel form of entertainment.

The three fairly recent radar grabs and the water vapor image on this page will give you an idea of what a truly wild evening this is. Click on the images to enlarge them. The first and third are basic winter reflectively images, with the latter offering a more zoomed-in look at southern Michigan. Look at all that pink! Interrogating a few of the deeper hues has given me reads of nearly 40 Dbz, and that’s nothing compared to elsewhere, and perhaps to what yet lies in store for us.

blizzard-2011-wvAs for the second screen, that shows cloud tops. The teal colored blobs indicate tops of 20,000 feet or greater, where thundersnow is likeliest to occur. And the fourth image depicting water vapor gives a macro view of what the entire system looks like as an immense entity sweeping eastward, with the dry slot punching upward into Illinois.

This may be one for the history books. I’m glad I stocked up on groceries, because I doubt I’ll be venturing out tomorrow. I doubt anyone will be. I’m certain that all the schools will be closed, and quite possibly many businesses as well. It will be a good day to hunker down and feel grateful for being indoors.

Zang! Another bright flash. I just got a phone call from my friend Brad Dawson, who lives down near Gun Lake. He tells me that a big towerblizzard6-2011500 feet from his house is getting continually struck. That has to be an experience, and from the looks of things, it’s apt to be one that continues through the night. Lacking any similar tall objects here, the lightning isn’t as constant, but it continues to flicker, and the storm itself is intensifying. What the heck–here’s one last image: a current radar scan. I just got a reading of 43.5 Dbz in one of the darker blobs of pink!

This is one howler of a winter storm system. But I’m done watching it for now. It’ll still be here in the morning. Time for me to hit the sack and enjoy the light show for a while before I fade out. Good night!

Update: Music Posts Now Partially Restored

To those of you who follow this blog: Thanks for your patience as I rewire it following a recent and important transition. While I’ve experienced some setbacks, I’m nevertheless making progress and want to let you know where things presently stand.

The current status will be of greater interest to musicians than weather weenies. In a nutshell, my music posts dating back to November 19, 2009, are now all properly linked to the correct images. When you click on an active link for a particular exercise or solo transcription, now the enlarged image that appears will be what you’d expect to see rather than a photograph of a tornado or a wild orchid!

I know you’re not seeing the image thumbnails! But you can still click them and view the full-size images.

Something appears to be screwed up with my image plug-in, NexGen. The past couple of NexGen updates, rather than improve the plug-in, have degraded its functionality, and the last one evidently stripped the image thumbnails from my pages, leaving white placeholders in their place.

Fortunately, the placeholders are active. So if you click on them, you’ll get a full-size image. Obviously, that’s not a satisfactory long-term situation–the thumbnails need to be restored–but one thing at a time. Right now I want to focus on the things that I can easily fix on my end; then I’ll tackle the NexGen issue. My hope is that meanwhile NexGen will release an update that fixes the problem.

My plan: first fix all the music posts, then the weather.

I’m taking this approach for three reasons. First, the music posts get more traffic through the entire history of the the posts. The exercises, transcriptions, and articles deal with information that doesn’t get dated, and since there seems to be a strong, ongoing interest in those posts, I want to get them restored as quickly as possible.

Second, the music posts aren’t as image-intensive as my storm chasing posts, so they’re easier to fix, and I can have them back in shape relatively quickly. I’m already MORE THAN HALFWAY FINISHED with them.

Finally, this is the off-season weatherwise, and while I know that the weather never takes a break–as I write, an intense winter storm is shaping up for much of the CONUS for tomorrow and Wednesday–nevertheless, we’ve got a ways to go before the spring storm season kicks in. This isn’t to say that I’m not anxious to get the storm chasing stuff–not to mention the other aspects of this site such as my photos page and CopyFox page–hooked up with the correct images. It’s just that I’ve got to tackle this job in an orderly fashion.

Bear with me, because I’m hammering away on this thing as best I can. Getting this blog fully restored and coasting along with all sails catching the wind is a huge priority for me. So stay tuned. My next update will probably come soon, once all the music posts are fixed.

YAAAAYYYYY!!!!! Life in Stormhorn Land Is Lookin’ Up!

What I thought was going to take several weeks of work, maybe a month or more, manually restoring my blog images and broken links one by one now has been drastically reduced to a much more manageable project.

My sweetheart, Lisa, is the absolute Bomb, and today her inner geek came through like a champion–with, I might add, considerable patience and supportiveness for technically challenged me. That combination of her knowledge, helpfulness, and gracious attitude has made a huge difference today, on a morning when I woke up feeling depressed about life in general and Stormhorn.com in particular.

I still have my work cut out for me, but the amount of it has been reduced astronomically, and a big, biiiig, what appeared to be majorly headachy part of it is already taken care of with the complete reinstatement of my NexGen image galleries and a simple correction that has fixed a bazillion broken internal links just like that. Within a few hours this morning, this site has gone from a basket case to well on the road to recovery.

On the reader side, though, Stormhorn.com may still appear to be pathetically busted. You still can’t access most of the images, whether solo transcriptions and jazz patterns or radar grabs and weather maps. You may notice that I’ve even removed my CopyFox page from public view. I mean, who’s going to hire a copywriter whose own business site resembles the victim of a shark attack?

Relax, though. I can say, with confidence and a good deal of relief, that everything will be back soon and once again chugging merrily along.

Here’s What Needs to Be Done

I need to reorganize my NexGen image gallery, which won’t take terribly long. Then I need to go into my posts and pages, one by one, and replace bad image links with good ones. That will takes some time, but you should start seeing the beginnings of the restoration today. I’ll be starting with my most recent posts and working back from there into my older posts until everything is as it should be.

Some other, less pressing details also need attention, but all in good time. What I’ve described above is my first priority. It’s now largely a matter of grunt work, but as I’ve said, the workload has been greatly reduced and I feel far better about things than I did last night.

Thanks so much for your help, Lis! You’re awesome, babe!

ADDENDUM: Yes, I Know That Lots of the Images Are Wrong!

Again, I’ve got some messed-up links to correct. So if you find yourself looking at a weather map where a musical exercise ought to be, take it in stride. It’ll all get sorted out in due time.