Sunday Thunder in Michigan

For a brief couple of runs Thursday I had vague hopes for an accessible warm front chase on Monday. But that evening’s 00z GFS brought me back to reality, and ensuing runs of the NAM and GFS have painted a blander, cold front scenario for Michigan. As an amateur, decent but still quite formative forecaster rather than a professional meteorologist, I have the freedom to speculate and dream a little on this blog, with the understanding that five days out is fuzzy territory, often more wishcasting than forecasting.

With models coming together three days ahead, I think it’s safe to say that there ain’t nothin’ gonna happen around here on Monday. By then the system will have moved through with zilch to work with in the way of instability, and we’ll start seeing its chillier back end. I’m consigning myself to the compensation prize of a possible bit of thunder around here Sunday night, maybe very early Monday morning, as the cold front moves through. I’ll take that. This early in the season, it’ll be good just to see a little lightning. For that matter, it always is. Storms don’t have to be severe in order to be exciting, beautiful, and worth enjoying.

Looking ahead, more activity could be shaping up for the middle of next week. The Gulf is doing business and the time has come for me to follow the forecast models more closely.

April 2, 2011 by
Filed Under: Michigan, Storm Chasing, Weather Tagged With: , , , ,

Eyeballing Monday for Severe Weather

Thursday Night

If the GFS is in the ballpark, then Monday by the Michigan border could be a chase day. Things may look better elsewhere in the country, but I have to stay local this coming week and take what I can get. I’m not going to slap up a bunch of weather maps right now because it’s too early to be definitive and too late at night for me to want to get very involved. The NAM will kick in tomorrow, and then things will become more interesting as I compare notes with it, the GFS, and the Euro.

Right now, though, the GFS is calling for a warm front laying down by the Indiana/Michigan border, with a surface low just to the west inducing strongly backed winds in the vicinity of the boundary. A stiff H5 jet core blows directly overhead, with shear to spare. SBCAPE of 1,000 J/kg-plus will be right in the neighborhood. The wild card looks to be whether sufficient moisture and instability will make it close enough to the boundary for helicity to do its thing.

The SPC’s current long-range outlook for Monday puts all of the action well to the south, from central Illinois and Indiana down to Dixie Alley. But I’m thinking that there’s a chance for tornadoes much closer to home. Not that I’m betting on it, but I am most definitely going to be keeping a close eye on the forecast models to see how they trend over the weekend.

Update: Ugh!

As of this Friday morning, the last two runs of the GFS and now the NAM are painting a very different scenario around here from what I’ve described above. Monday’s outlook for this neck of the woods look good for storms, but with the winds unidirectional from the southwest the setup appears to be quite linear. The warm front looks to lift up into Michigan and there’s bound to be some backing of winds along that boundary, but whether they can hook up with surface-based instability is the question, and the cold front will be breathing down their neck, rocketing in and shoveling up the moisture en masse.

I should mention that this is the more hopeful picture per the NAM, which places the triple point in southwest Michigan by 18z. The faster GFS has blasted the cold front through by that time, with the low center well to the north, and the Euro is uncharacteristically even more aggressive. I had read that it and the GFS were in good agreement previously, but I don’t see that reflected here.

That’s as of the 6z GFS and NAM runs. The picture has changed, but chances are it’ll change again. The only thing to do is sit back, watch this pot bubble, and see what comes of it.

March 31, 2011 by
Filed Under: Michigan, Storm Chasing, Tornadoes, Weather Tagged With: , , , , ,

Sax at the Park

Yesterday was gorgeous though a bit chilly–what can you expect in Michigan in mid-March, after all?–and I was anxious to put my new camcorder through its paces. So off to Fallasburg Park I went. Located north of Lowell on the Flat River, the park is a beautiful location adjacent to a historical village complete with a functional and well-trafficked covered bridge.

I had meant to use my tripod, but when I got to Fallasburg I discovered that I had left behind the plate that screws into the bottom of my camcorder so it can engage with the tripod’s quick release. Fortunately, I was able to induce a young guy who was at the park with his wife and little boy to film me. The result: not too shabby for a whimsical production using an on-the-spot cameraman! Just a little free-form saxophone improvisation–nothing fancy, just fun. Start with a note and then see where it takes you. Pardon the wind noise about halfway through–it was pretty breezy out there.

This is my first attempt at embedding a video in WordPress. Let’s see how it goes.

March 19, 2011 by
Filed Under: Jazz, Michigan, Music, Outdoors, Saxophone, Video Tagged With: , , ,

Storm Chasing for TV 8: Taking It to the Next Level

I met this afternoon with WOOD TV 8 meteorologists Kyle Underwood and Matt Kirkwood to discuss chasing storms for TV 8. I’m excited about the prospect of taking what has hitherto been a longstanding hobby of mine, albeit one of passionate focus, and upgrading it to the semi-professional level.

When Ben Holcomb left Michigan last year for the grand storm chaser’s Mecca of Oklahoma, he offered to hook up several of his Troll compatriots with TV 8 to fill his vacancy. One of those chasers was me. At the time, gracious as Ben’s offer was, I nevertheless felt I had to decline due to a pathetic lack of equipment. But the thought of the opportunity kept nagging at me, so I finally decided to take a chance and purchase some stuff I really can’t afford out of the sense that I can’t afford NOT to do so. My gut instinct, which I hope is right, is that my investment will pay for itself over the storm season. Thus, motivated by the possibility of having my avocation become self-sustaining, with tax writeoffs on mileage and expenses as an added incentive, I dropped a healthy chunk of cash on the following items:

  • ♦ Panasonic HDC-TM700 video camera with 32 gig internal memory
  • ♦ 32 gig HDSC memory card
  • ♦ Logitech Pro 9000 webcam for live streaming video

The cash outlay is not one I take lightly at a time when my money is tight. It’s a good barometer of how seriously I take storm chasing. But after speaking with Kyle, I’m impressed that WOOD TV appears, on its part, to be equally serious about developing a topnotch crew of local chasers. Commitment matched with commitment is a good thing.

Besides my purchase of equipment, over the past few weeks I’ve also invested a good amount of my time and a bit more cash studying for my HAM radio test, which I took and passed last Friday. Today I finally found my new call letters in the FCC list, so I’m now officially good to go as a HAM operator.

Additionally, per Lisa’s recommendation, I’ve registered with Vimeo, and after giving it an introductory look-over, I feel good about that resource as an online video repository. Vimeo should allow me to start embedding my footage in future Stormhorn.com blog posts, and it may also serve as an easy way to make my material accessible to WOOD TV.

All that now remains to be done is to sign up with Chaser TV and start getting familiar with the live streaming video. That and familiarize myself with Vimeo and its capabilities. I’ve got a bit of a learning curve ahead of me between now and April 1, when WOOD TV hopes to begin tapping into its chaser pool.

Since all the chasers in that pool know each other–it’s a small, connected community, as I’m sure storm chasers anywhere will understand–there’s the potential for some decent synergy on a chase day. What one man misses, another is likely to catch.

So…a new experience lies ahead for 2011. No way am I missing big weather when it shapes up out west in Tornado Alley. But if statistics mean anything, this year’s La Nina could bring a bonanza of severe weather closer to home, even to my back door of West Michigan. When it does, I’ll be on it, dashcam streaming and camcorder a-blazin’.

March 16, 2011 by
Filed Under: Life, Michigan, Storm Chasing, Tornadoes, Weather Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , ,

March: When Daylight Lengthens

Today is March 6, and between the first day of the month till now we have already gained fourteen minutes of daylight here in Caledonia, Michigan. By the end of the month, that figure will have grown to an hour and 29 minutes–52 minutes in the morning and 37 in the evening. That averages out to a gain of around 2.9 minutes every day.

March is the month when daylight happens.

Small wonder that storm chasers do a happy dance when March 1 arrives. It’s designated the beginning of meteorological spring for good reason. Henceforth the days are poised to lengthen rapidly. The sun is climbing higher in its arc over the northern hemisphere, putting in a longer workday and shining more intensely. That means warmer temperatures, juicier dewpoints, and increasing instability. Things start happening. The new storm season’s convective pump is getting primed, and preludes of the next few months start showing up on the radar.

So why complain about March? It may not be pretty, but it loves ya.

March 6, 2011 by
Filed Under: Michigan, Nature, Outdoors, Storm Chasing, Weather Tagged With: , , , , , , ,

Skunk Cabbage Time

Snow may still be covering the ground here in West Michigan, but meteorological spring has sprung and March is on the march. Temperatures are trending warmer, and while the mid to upper thirties may not be anything to brag about, the vernal transition is at hand. You can see it in the mist lying over the snowfields. You can hear it in the spring songs of a few optimistic early-birds. It’s there on the weather maps in the form of lows sweeping northeastward out of the Plains, tugging moisture up out of the Gulf of Mexico. And soon, those of us who love native plants will discover it poking up through remnant drifts in wooded swamps in the form of Michigan’s earliest wildflower, the skunk cabbage.

skunkcabbage2
Symplocarpus foetidus may not be bouquet material, but I’m fond of it. Too low-key to be striking, skunk cabbage is nevertheless remarkable, a demonstration of genius walking hand in hand with humility. Its small, odd-looking, purple-cowled flowers, rising amid the languishing snow drifts in mid to late March here in the north, resemble nothing else the woodland has to offer. Once I see them, I know that spring has gotten truly, irrevocably underway. (Click to enlarge image.)

Indeed, as spring’s first flowering harbinger, skunk cabbage makes its own modest contribution to the ambient temperature through its unique ability to generate heat. Skunk cabbage flowers literally melt their way through the snow, generating temperatures upwards of 70 degrees in their immediate vicinity. These little heat engines serve as microclimates for certain insects; each bloom is, in a sense, a world unto itself.

Speaking of the blooms, the mottled hood that resembles a monk emerging headfirst from the earth is not the actual flower. It is a structure called a spathe, and it wraps around the stubby yellow spike on which the tiny flowers grow.

Tear off just a small piece from any part of the plant–the spathe or, in a few more weeks, the large, lush green leaves–and give it a sniff. You’ll instantly discover how the skunk cabbage got its name. It’s not a plant known for its mild, winsome aroma.

The lowly skunk cabbage may rank as America’s oldest flowering herb. Speculation is that, in a supportive environment, Symplocarpus foetidus may live for hundreds of years. That stand of skunk cabbage you traipsed past without giving a second thought to on your hike through the woods may have gotten its start before the Mayflower landed!

Storm chasers greet the spring looking up at the sky, sniffing the moisture returning from the Gulf of Mexico and watching for tumbled clouds to rise through the troposphere and throw tantrums of thunder, lightning, and hail. But it pays to look down as well. The advance guard of spring’s convective pyrotechnics may be an unobtrusive little plant peering up at you beside a snow drift in the woods.

March 4, 2011 by
Filed Under: Life, Michigan, Nature, Outdoors Tagged With: , , , , , ,

Warming Trend through February

Today temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 30s here in West Michigan, and by Friday they should be well into the forties. With a little luck, we may even see our first 50-degree day of the year. This warming trend has been no secret, and it’s the kind of thing that draws me out of my wintertime apathy about weather maps and whets my curiosity. The next week seems pretty well defined, but what lies beyond the horizon?

So this morning I did something I haven’t done for quite a while: I peered into the magic 8 ball of the 6Z GFS all the way out to 372 hours, to the forecast hour of 18Z Monday, February 28. My point in doing so was to get a sense of what general trend might be shaping up. What I see is the beginning of springtime incursions of warmer air. Not to say that we up here in the northwoods can don our swimsuits and head for the beach, but it looks like this week may mark the end of the long stretches of bitterly cold weather. We could see more days near or above freezing, and at times up into the forties, rather than in the 20s and teens.

In just two more weeks meteorological spring will arrive. Granted its foibles, overall the long-range GFS appears to be rolling out the carpet. We’re not there yet, friends, but today’s warmup offers a view from the hilltop and the end is in sight. We’ve almost made it through another winter.

February 13, 2011 by
Filed Under: Life, Michigan, Storm Chasing, Weather Tagged With: , , , ,

Stormhorn Jazz: It’s Happenin’ Saturday at the Cobblestone!

Last week’s gig at the Cobblestone was the best yet! The turnout was fantastic, and it included some very welcome faces. My sweet mother and sister, Diane, came to listen. So did Kyle Wellfare, band director for the Caledonia Senior High School and a jazz bass player. And so did long-lost and recently found high school classmates Sue Marie Carrick and Steve Afendoulis.

Steve and I go back a long ways. We were both still in junior high school when he asked me to play in a big band he was forming called The Formal Aires. Managed by Steve’s dad, Gus Afendoulis, and co-directed by saxophonist and big band veteran Ted Carino and composer Sid Stellema, the Formal Aires enjoyed constant weekend bookings at country clubs, weddings, and social events. The band was my introduction to jazz, and Steve was our leader.

When Steve got wind of my gig via FaceBook, he told me he was coming out and asked if he could sit in. Heck yes! It was a real joy to reconnect with him and make music together again after over 35 years. And Steve did great. He hadn’t touched his set in a long time, but he fit right in, keeping the beat and catching the breaks in a way only someone informed by plenty of prior experience could do.

This Saturday my regular partners in music, Dave DeVos and Paul Lesinski, have previous bookings, and that’s the case for the next couple weeks as well. Never fear, though–I have some stellar players joining me: Steve Talaga on keyboards and Charlie Hoats on bass. I’ve not met Charlie in person yet, and I’ve been wanting to, not only because he comes with glowing recommendations, but also because he lives right here in Caledonia just a couple miles up the road from me. As for Steve Talaga, I’m well acquainted with his playing. The man is fabulous. ‘Nuff said.

So put Saturday in your book and come on out. The Cobblestone is developing a reputation for urban-quality dining in an accessible, refreshingly non-urban setting. And of course you’ll enjoy listening to live jazz! Here’s what you need to know:

• Date & Time: Saturday, February 5, 6:0-9:00 p.m.

• Place: The Cobblestone Bistro & Banquet Center

• Address: 9818 Cherry Valley Ave. SE (M-37), Caledonia, MI

• Phone: (616) 588-3223

Reservations are recommended, but walk-ins are welcome.

February 4, 2011 by
Filed Under: Band, Entertainment, Jazz, Michigan, Music, Saxophone

The Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011

blizzard3-2011The cloud tops are up to 20,000 feet here in Caledonia, and about two minutes ago the first impressively bright flash of lightning lit the blizzard swirling around my apartment. Thundersnow! Rare, but  not unexpected tonight, and now that it has arrived, I’m continuing to see sporadic flickers of lightning. That initial one was a doozy, though, and all I can think is, Cool! How often does one get to hear thunder rumble through the teeth of a February blizzard?

Man, is it blowing out there!

All eyes have been on this winter storm for the past several days, watching it move from forecast models into reality. Nowcloud-tops-2011here it is, and it is a humdinger. Anywhere from a minimum of 12 up to 16 inches of snow is predicted to dump on our area, and south of us it only gets worse. Pink is the color that indicates heavy snowfall on my radar color table, and I don’t recall ever seeing such a large expanse of it covering my screen before. Between now and sometime tomorrow morning is when the heaviest snowfall is supposed to occur, and looking outside my window at the maelstrom swirling dimly out of the midnight sky, I see nothing to contradict that prognosis.

blizzard4-2011Ah! Another flash of lightning and another rumble of thunder! This is nice. Imagine that–me, an avowed snow grinch, enjoying a blizzard! But I have to say, this storm appears to be living up to all expectations. I honestly don’t recall that I’ve ever experienced thundersnow before, so I’m really pleased to be getting such a novel form of entertainment.

The three fairly recent radar grabs and the water vapor image on this page will give you an idea of what a truly wild evening this is. Click on the images to enlarge them. The first and third are basic winter reflectively images, with the latter offering a more zoomed-in look at southern Michigan. Look at all that pink! Interrogating a few of the deeper hues has given me reads of nearly 40 Dbz, and that’s nothing compared to elsewhere, and perhaps to what yet lies in store for us.

blizzard-2011-wvAs for the second screen, that shows cloud tops. The teal colored blobs indicate tops of 20,000 feet or greater, where thundersnow is likeliest to occur. And the fourth image depicting water vapor gives a macro view of what the entire system looks like as an immense entity sweeping eastward, with the dry slot punching upward into Illinois.

This may be one for the history books. I’m glad I stocked up on groceries, because I doubt I’ll be venturing out tomorrow. I doubt anyone will be. I’m certain that all the schools will be closed, and quite possibly many businesses as well. It will be a good day to hunker down and feel grateful for being indoors.

Zang! Another bright flash. I just got a phone call from my friend Brad Dawson, who lives down near Gun Lake. He tells me that a big towerblizzard6-2011500 feet from his house is getting continually struck. That has to be an experience, and from the looks of things, it’s apt to be one that continues through the night. Lacking any similar tall objects here, the lightning isn’t as constant, but it continues to flicker, and the storm itself is intensifying. What the heck–here’s one last image: a current radar scan. I just got a reading of 43.5 Dbz in one of the darker blobs of pink!

This is one howler of a winter storm system. But I’m done watching it for now. It’ll still be here in the morning. Time for me to hit the sack and enjoy the light show for a while before I fade out. Good night!

February 2, 2011 by
Filed Under: Life, Michigan, Nature, Outdoors, Weather, Weather Radar Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Update and Gig

The Latest on Stormhorn.com: Navigating the Move

This is my first post after changing my Web host to Dryline Hosting. The transition has been a bit bumpy, largely because I’m not familiar with the details involved in Web hosting and have had to deal with the learning curve. My friend Karina Myers, who with her husband, Mitch, operated the now-defunct Tablox Web Solutions, was gracious enough to move my files for me, and as I look at how many of them there are, I realize how overwhelmed I’d have felt if I’d had to handle the transfer myself. That kind of thing takes infinitely longer when you don’t know what the heck you’re doing!

Anyway, right now you’ll notice that the header and all my images are missing. That includes all the practice exercises and solo transcriptions I’ve developed over the years.

RELAX! (I’m saying that to myself as well as to you.) The image files all still exist. But I’ve obviously got a bit of work to do in order to get them back to where you can once again view and access them. Trust me, doing so is high on my to-do list. I want to get my Stormhorn blog site fully functional as soon as I can, so stay tuned, and please bear with the current, stripped-down look, sans images. It’s only temporary.

Gig Saturday at the Cobblestone

A reminder that my jazz trio plays again Saturday night, January 22, from 6:30-9:30 p.m. at the Cobblestone right here in Caledonia, Michigan. The place is an ideal setting for jazz. The room is such that you can hear the music anywhere while at the same time being able to carry on a conversation. The food and wine are great. And my fellow musicians, bassist David DeVos and keyboardist Paul Lesinski, are some of the best in West Michigan.

Tomorrow is our last booking, and while I hope that the owner will  extend our stay, I don’t know at this point whether that will happen. Ben loves jazz and really wants to make it happen at his place, but he needs an increasing customer base in order to make it work for him financially. So come on out, show your support, and enjoy an evening of  live jazz with the Stormhorn Jazz Trio  in the warm, relaxed, and inviting setting of the Cobblestone Bistro.

• Date & Time: Saturday, January 22, 6:30-9:30 p.m.

• Place: The Cobblestone Bistro & Banquet Center

• Address: 9818 Cherry Valley Ave. SE (M-37), Caledonia, MI

• Phone: (616) 588-3223

Reservations are recommended, but walk-ins are welcome.

January 22, 2011 by
Filed Under: Band, Entertainment, Event, Jazz, Michigan, Saxophone, Storm Chasing, Uncategorized Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , ,
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