The eastern Great Lakes looks to be once again under the gun for severe weather, with a setup that looks reminiscent of last week’s, albeit with some variations. The low is weaker but there’s juicier moisture, helicities may integrate a little better with instability, and it seems to me that the 500 mb jet is better positioned. Once again, though, surface winds veer rapidly south of the warm front, so while the mechanism for another batch of supercells is in place, the tornado potential is less certain. The SPC convective outlook shows a 5% tornado risk. That seems about right, though maybe part of the area will get upgraded this afternoon.
After looking at the morning NAM and RUC, I once again like the area south of Toledo. Bowling Green was my initial target last week, and I’d pick it again this week if I wanted to drive that far. If I chase storms at all today, I may just wind up dropping south down 131 toward the warm front, depending.
By the way, I haven’t posted a thing about Monday’s tornado fest in Oklahoma and I probably should. I wasn’t there to experience it, but my buddies Kurt Hulst and Bill Oosterbaan teamed up for it, and Ben Holcomb made it down there as well, and everyone scored. Bill tells me that he and Kurt saw seven confirmed tornadoes.
Me, I watched the outbreak unfold on the radar and ate my heart out. It really was a heck of a thing to observe. The SRVs were jaw-dropping, and I saw one low-level Delta velocity of 177 knots. Those storms were the real deal, and a huge contingent of chasers was on them. Among the highlights was the Wakita, OK, multi-vortex that a number of chasers captured on video. The clips I’ve seen show what looks like a basketful of snakes dancing.
Unfortunately, five people died in the storms. If there’s anything positive that can be said about the loss of life, it’s that the paths of the storms through mostly rural areas no doubt kept casualties lower than they could have been. One supercell dropped tornadoes in Oklahoma City, and all it takes is one. But that’s better than multiple population centers getting hit by storms the intensity of Monday’s storms.
