Jazz Improvisation: Some Assembly Required

Last Monday night, on my way home from a rehearsal with Big Band Nouveau, I got to thinking about how different jazz improvisers sound from each other. In our sax section alone, we have three solo voices, each of them distinct. Mike Doyle,  our lead tenor man and band leader, is an eclectic mix of influences, though I would say that his roots are in hard bop. Isaac Norris, our other tenor player, is working his way into increasing complexity, but he clearly comes out of the smooth jazz tradition. As for me, the lead alto guy, I’m steeped in bebop and hard bop tempered with some of the contemporary concepts of Michael Brecker.

All three of us play the saxophone, but each of us plays it differently. And this is true throughout the world of jazz. Hand five seasoned trumpet players the same set of chord changes set to the same groove and backed by the same rhythm section, and each trumpeter will handle those changes in a personal way, using a vocabulary that includes many of the same ideas as the other players, but in an individualized manner; and also incorporating other ideas that are utterly unique to the musician.

I used to think there was a “right” way to play jazz, a sort of standardized approach that separated the real deals from the neophytes and the outliers. I don’t know where that notion came from. Probably my own black-and-white thinking as a young man, due partly to my need to define things in order to learn them and partly to my tremendous insecurity. Now I realize that jazz improvisation is like a vast arboretum filled with all kinds of trees and plants, with trails that wind across terraces and hillsides, through emerald woodlands, and over sun-gilded meadows. All kinds of beautiful living things grow there, and somewhere in that magnificent landscape is a plot of land you can call your own and grow what you choose to grow.

You get the same gardening implements and essentials as everyone else: your instrument, the structural elements of music theory, the legacy of great jazz soloists to learn from, the water of practice, and the rich soil of your own ever-increasing experience. But what you grow with these things is up to you.

You start out by learning how to play your instrument. You expand by exploring music theory and how other musicians have applied it to their art. And ultimately, you find your own voice.

Your instrument is not your voice.

Music theory is not your voice.

Technique is not your voice.

The styles of other players are not your voice.

YOU are your voice.

Your voice resides within you, and everything else is just the tools for discovering it, releasing it, and continuing to cultivate it.

Jazz does not come pre-assembled. In fact, it is anything but prefab. The best you can say is that all the tools and materials are at your disposal. But the assembly is entirely up to you. Just know this: whatever you come up with–whatever work of art you create, whatever tree you grow in your part of the arboretum–will be exactly the right way for you to play jazz if you work at it with diligence and integrity.

Remember, it takes time to grow a tree. Enjoy that tree, that living thing God has entrusted to you, in all its stages. There is no rush, no place to arrive at, only a life experience to invest yourself in. Work hard, but breathe easy–and enjoy yourself.

The Foibles of Long-Range Forecast Models

Tues_March_19_GFS300hrsSometimes a picture really is worth a whole lot of words. In this case, two tell the story more eloquently than I can.

In the image to your left, the 12Z run of the  GFS depicts 500 mb height contours, surface moisture, and surface winds at 300 hours out, or twelve days before the forecast date.

The second image, taken just a little while ago, shows the same information for the same system, only now we’re down to just 66 hours from forecast time. Note that the forecast date has moved up a day to Monday; by Tuesday, the whole system has moved off to the east and out to sea. Bye-bye moisture and instability.

Mon_March_18_GFS66hrsWhat happened? The GFS happened, that’s what.

I realize that for many of my storm chasing readers, maybe most of you, I’m preaching to the choir, but some may wish to take note of the following:

Long-range forecast models are notoriously undependable and prone to change.

If you’ve never heard the colloquialism wish-casting, now’s the time to add it to your storm chasing lexicon. The further out you go beyond three days from an event, the more that attempting to forecast a chaseable setup amounts to just a hope and a prayer. Bad data and changing data amplify progressively in the numerical models, to the point where what you see at 240 hours out is subject to anything from mild to wild fluctuation and revision as the forecast hour draws closer and new data gets processed. By the time the NAM and SREF lean in, and finally the RAP and HRRR, what you see may resemble nothing like the deep, negatively tilted trough and gorgeous moisture plume that first captured your attention. The shape, the timing, wind speed and direction at different heights, quality of moisture, instability–everything can change, and it will, possibly quite drastically.

Remember the gossip chain? Anna tells Peter, “Selena just bought a used Nissan from the same car dealer where Jaden bought his truck. It’s on 44th Street about a mile from the dump.” Peter passes the news on to Sam thus: “Selena just bought a car from the same dealer where Jaden got his truck next to the 44th Street dump.” Sam tells Chelsea, and Chelsea tells Adam, and so it goes, with the information getting nuanced a little more each time until it becomes outright twisted. Finally, word gets back to Selena: “Hey, Selena, what’s this I hear about you buying the dump over on 44th Street from some drug dealer?”

It can be kind of that way with long-range forecasts.

So why even bother watching the long-range models, particularly the famously untrustworthy GFS? There are two reasons. One is, the models can provide a heads-up to the possibility of a chaseworthy setup. At 192 hours out, don’t think of the models as forecasts–think of them as potential forecasts, something to keep an eye on. A given scenario could fall completely apart and often does. But it could also develop run-to-run consistency that agrees with the short-range models as they enter the picture, and ultimately lead to a decent chase.

For those of us who have to drive a long distance to Tornado Alley, such advance awareness is particularly valuable. If you live in Chickasha, Oklahoma, or Wichita, Kansas, you can roll out of bed in the morning, look at the satellite, surface obs, NAM, and RAP, and decide whether you’re going to chase in the afternoon. But if you live in Grand Rapids, Michigan, or Punxatawney, Pennsylvania, things aren’t that easy. When you’ve got to travel 800 to 1,000 miles or more to get to the action, burning time and fuel and perhaps vacation days, lead-time becomes important, and the more, the better.

The second reason for watching the long-range models is sheer obsessiveness. Call it desperation if you wish. It has been a long winter and storm chasers are itching to hit the road. Some of us just can’t help ourselves–we want to see some flicker of life, some sign of hope, some indication of the Gulf conveyor opening for business beneath a warming sun and dangerous dynamics. What’s the harm in that? Most of us know enough not to hang our hats on a 120-hour forecast, let alone one that’s two weeks out. But it doesn’t hurt to dream. After all, sometimes dreams come true.

Jazz Jams at Noto’s: An Interview with Guitarist Steve Hilger

Every other Thursday night, guitarist Steve Hilger hosts a jazz jam in the lounge of Noto’s Old World Italian Dining at 6600 28th Street SE. Located in the Grand Rapids bedroom community of Cascade in southeast Kent County, the restaurant is easily accessible from the main drag. There, from 7:00–10:00 p.m., Steve provides a topnotch rhythm section for jazz musicians to sit in with and air out their chops.

While seasoned players are always gladly welcomed, Steve is particularly interested in giving high school and college musicians the chance to perform onstage with a live band. That kind of opportunity doesn’t come often or easily in West Michigan. Thanks to the vision and persistence of well-known jazz veteran Randy Marsh, downtown Grand Rapids has had a jazz jam venue for the last two years on Sunday nights, first at HopCat and lately at Speak EZ. Now Steve offers a similar opportunity to the outlying southeast area, within easy reach of musicians in the Forest Hills, Caledonia, East Grand Rapids, Kentwood, Lowell, and Middleville school districts.

This is the kind of thing I longed for as a younger player–and as an older player, for that matter. Let’s face it, West Michigan is not New York or Chicago. There are plenty of musicians here but not many chances for them to get together informally and blow.  So the jam sessions at Noto’s are a boon to developing and even professional jazz instrumentalists and vocalists. The setting is one where parents can feel comfortable letting their teen musician hang out with other players, and the rest of the family will enjoy it as well if they wish to listen.

The sessions have gotten off to a slow start, but there’s plenty of reason for them to take off once area musicians find out about them. Word just needs to spread. So I’m doing my part with this post. I’ve had a blast sitting in with Steve and the guys, and I invite you to do the same if you’re a jazz practicioner.

And that’s enough from me. It’s time to hear from Steve.

_______________

Question: How long have you played guitar? Who are some of your influences?

Steve: I started playing guitar in the eighth grade with a cheap nylon string classical guitar and a borrowed Peter, Paul, and Mary songbook. I started with “Don’t Think Twice, Its Alright.” I actually learned the finger picking before the strumming.

My influences are many. I am a fan of a lot of different types of music including jazz, blues, acoustic folk, rock, and classical. Some of my influential guitar players include Carlos Santana, Eric Clapton, and Stevie Ray Vaughn. I would have to say that the most influential was Carlos Santana, because even as a kid, I marvelled at his melodic lines. It was not the number of notes he played that mattered, but which notes he played.

Yet musically overall, my influences are more from horn players such as Miles Davis, John Coltrane and Charlie Parker. Miles Davis was another example of playing the right notes instead of a lot of them.

Q: You’ve had your own bands for quite a while now, and you’re well-established in the Grand Rapids and West Michigan music scene. How did you get started?

S: In college, I had a friend who I started a band with. We wrote our own tunes and eventually recorded them in a studio in New York. The music took a back seat while I was raising a family and starting a legal career. After a divorce, I rekindled my lifelong passion of guitar playing and song writing. Nothing quite like a divorce to inspire you to write lyrics.

I went into the studio in 2005 to record some of the new tunes, and then we performed them live at the 2007 Grand Rapids Festival of the Arts. Shortly after that, we started to play blues and started performing around town.

Q: You started with a blues band. More recently you formed a jazz combo. What led you to diversify?

S: Ever since I heard Miles Davis’s “Kind of Blue” shortly after it came out, I was fascinated by jazz. Then, in the mid-70s, when The Allman Brothers put out “Live at the Fillmore East,” I discovered the blues. I’ve always loved both genres. So when I realized I had a blues band full of really talented jazz musicians, I decided to do both and started a jazz band as well.

Q: You and veteran drummer Randy Marsh are doing your utmost to uphold a vital tradition of jazz: the jam session. Randy hosts a Sunday evening session at Speak EZ in downtown Grand Rapids. You host one at Noto’s in Cascade every other Thursday, and you’re particularly interested in encouraging high school and college musicians to participate. Why are you doing this and what would you like to see happen? What do younger musicians get out of a jam session that they can’t get other ways?

S: When I was in high school in a small town thirty-six miles west of New York City, I played trumpet in the school jazz band. Our band leader played gigs in New York City and was pretty well known as a trombone player. She was able to attract top talent to come to our school and give clinics. I do not remember all of them, but I specifically remember Count Basie and Doc Severenson.

That was a huge opportunity, and it would be nice to pass it on in some small way. Student musicians need a chance, and have the right, to make mistakes. Once they get past the fear of failure, they can start to experiment, learn, and develop confidence which carries over in all aspects of life. If, for as long as I do this, I am able to reach one student in this fashion, all the effort will be worth it. Young musicians really need a place to come out and give it a go.

Q: You provide a unique tie-in between the Noto’s jam session and the selection of young musicians for this summer’s GRandJazzFest. Please tell us about it.

S: Every other Thursday, my jazz trio, TrioJazz has been performing at Noto’s. We thought that Noto’s would be a good venue for students to sit in and work their chops on jazz improvisation.

I am on the selection committee for musical acts for the 2013 GRJazz Festival. The Board thought it would be a good idea to have students participate in the festival, and we needed a way to reach out to jazz students to see who was willing and able to perform. It’s part of the GRJazz Festival’s commitment to include education as part of its goals. The Thursday night Noto’s gig provides a perfect opportunity to find student jazz musicians who might play in the festival.

The Noto’s gig is really the only way I will get the chance to meet student musicians in the community. And if a young musician feels they did not do as well as they would have liked on a given night, they can always come back and try again. There is no point-scoring here. While we hope to pick some of the top students to participate, everyone who comes out and plays is a winner in their own right. We will be selecting five or so musicians who will be given a chance to jump on the big stage at the jazz festival to showcase their talents.

Q: It can feel intimidating for a high school kid to set foot onstage and play with professional musicians. But you and your musicians are hugely encouraging and love to have younger players sit in. Talk about what a student can expect when they walk in with their instrument. Do you have any advice for them?

S: They and their family can expect a casual, wholesome setting and a warm welcome. They can listen as long as they want, assemble their instrument when they feel ready, and then play the tune or tunes of their choice.

My first piece of advice is, relax. Have fun! Enjoy the moment. Nobody is scoring anything here and you have nothing to lose. All of us started out at some point. So pick a tune, preferably out of the Real Book, or bring charts, and let’s see if we can have some fun!

Q: Jam sessions aside, what are you striving for personally in your own growth curve as a musician?

S: I strive to be the best musician I can be. That applies to all the music I play. I practice a lot.

One common experience among many musicians, me included, is that you always hear other musicians who do something better than you. What you don’t realize is that you yourself do some things better than anyone else. I remember an interview with a jazz great who was so disappointed with a solo he played because he hit some wrong notes, or so he thought. Then he noticed that everyone who was following him started playing those wrong notes because the “wrong notes” had now become hip. So I am always listening, always trying to get better, always trying to hear what other musicians are doing to see if there are any take-away things I can do or use.

Q: A steady diet of nothing but music makes for a great player but a narrow life. You own your own law firm, and I know that you absolutely love what you do. What other interests and activities do you have which round you out as a person?

S: First and foremost, my interests are my three wonderful kids and the lovely Deborah Richmond. They are the foundation of my life.

I truly enjoy my work and the firm I started and have helped to grow. We have great partners and a wonderful group of clients.

I am also an avid photographer and have traveled throughout the United States on photography trips, focusing mainly on nature, wildlife, and landscape photography. I have published articles and photos, and started all that as a news photographer in the late 1960s when photographers were somewhat of a novelty.

For many years, I traveled the country competing in archery, which ended in multiple state and national championships, records, and even the 2004 Olympic trials. Now, my son and I are into the shooting sports such as skeet and big-bore, long-range rifle shooting.

Remembering the Henryville EF4 Tornado: A One-Year Retrospective

We were three-and-a-half miles north of Palmyra, Indiana, when the tornado crossed the road less than a mile in front of us at Dutch Creek Road, ripping up a 12 x 12-foot section of asphalt in the process and throwing it in chunks into an adjacent field. Within about a minute, the vortex had morphed from a wispy rope into a powerhouse of a stovepipe, tearing tangentially across our path as Bill Oosterbaan and I blasted north on State Road 135.

Bill is no timid driver, and he did a heck of a job keeping pace with the beast. But the storm was a missile, moving at least 60 miles an hour, and once we hit downed power lines at Dutch Creek Road, we had to let it go. We had no idea of the tragedy it was about to inflict to our northeast. But, watching the white condensation funnel billow and intensify beyond the treeline, with secondary vortices wrapping around it like a cloak, we could tell it was a monster. As I filed a report on Spotter Network, Bill turned around and headed back south. A second supercell was hot on the heels of the one we had just let go, and repositioning became our immediate concern.

Bill and I had just been fortunate to catch and videotape the Henryille EF4 tornado in its formative stages. We first glimpsed it south of Palmyra as it descended from a wall cloud several miles to our west-northwest. It didn’t look particularly impressive at that point, but as we closed in, the fast-moving circulation began to display wild shapes and motions, then condensed fully and finally just before crossing the highway.

It seems incredible that  in the few meager seconds the tornado took to translate across SR 135, it managed to rip up a large section of road. The term “asphalt scouring” just doesn’t apply; there was no scouring involved. An estimated 10,000 pounds of pavement got literally torn from the downwind side of the highway and thrown something like one hundred feet. I didn’t witness this road damage and only found out about it later. But chaser Simon Brewer provides a good description of what he saw just a few-score yards north of where Bill and I turned around.

The wider damage path associated with the main tornado circulation was easily visible from a forest west of the highway through a field, and past the highway through another forest to the east. Also, an individual suction vortex damage path was easily found starting in the field scouring vegetation and tossing boulders from a drainage ditch, then crossing a section of highway peeling and tossing massive slabs of asphalt, the largest broke upon second contact with the ground (it bounced leaving an significant impact crater) on the downwind side of the highway. Typical sphalt scouring is usually associated with EF3 and stronger tornadoes, but typical asphalt scouring is found on rural roads with relatively thin asphalt 1-2 inches or less thick. It’s amazing to think how short a time period the small suction vortex was probably over that section of highway; maybe only a second tops! I usually don’t stop to investigate tornado damage, but when I saw the highway damage on March 2nd I was blown away! I took more photos of the road damage than I did the storm and tornado. I consulted Dr. Greg Forbes and he agreed this was one of the most incredible damage cases he’s heard, only possibly being eclipsed by the trench created by the Philadelphia MS EF5 on April 27, 2011.*

A year has passed since all of the above took place. At the same time last year as I am presently writing these words, Bill and I were nearing Louisville, and within another hour or so we would shift into chase mode, head west, and intercept our storm. Click here to read my complete account of that chase, including my video of the tornado as well as radar images and skew-Ts.

Today the weather is drastically different. This March is behaving like March, not May, and in light of last year’s prolonged heat wave and disastrous drought, I am glad. I will be delighted to see another round or two of good winter weather bring still more moisture to the Plains and Midwest and prime the pump for storm season. The storms of spring will get here soon enough, and while nothing is certain, my hunch is that this year will be better than last year.

_______________

* Simon Brewer, from his January 14, 2013, post in the Stormtrack thread The EF Scale and Asphalt Scouring Caused by the March 2 Henryville Tornado. Also see Simon’s and Jim Bishop’s chase account, which includes photos of the road damage, at their Stormgasm website. You can see Dutch Creek Road just past the road sign and parked car in the background of the first photo.

Enter March: No Repeat of 2012

March 2 2013 GFSMarch 2013 won’t be making anything like last year’s brutal grand entry. For residents of the Ohio valley, that is a good thing. On March 2 a year ago, unseasonably springlike conditions fostered an outbreak of tornadoes, including the violent Henryville, Indiana, tornado that my friend Bill Oosterbaan and I intercepted north of Palmyra.

This March’s arrival portends nothing like that. One look at the map (click to enlarge) will show you that conditions are quite different from last year. The model is today’s (February 27, 2013) 00Z run showing the 500 mb heights and surface temperatures for March 2 at 21Z. With a ridge dominating the western half of the CONUS and cold Canadian air sitting atop the Great Lakes, the picture doesn’t even remotely resemble the 2012 scenario that sent storm chasers scrambling for their gear. A few days prior to the event–that is, right about now–we were casting anxious eyes on the embryonic system with the sense that northern Dixie Alley was in for it.

I’m frankly glad that a cooler, more quiescent opener is in store for the 2013 meteorological spring. I will be pleased to get more snow, and I hope the Midwest and Great Plains get a few more good, solid dumpings before storm season arrives in earnest. Storm chasing aside, the more moisture, the better for regions that have languished under severe drought. As inconvenient as the recent blizzard was for west Texas, I’ll bet the folks in Amarillo were mighty glad to get that much snow. I hope they get more, or just water in abundance in whatever form it takes.

This March may be entering on the cold side, at least here in Michigan, but that’s okay. It is March, the month of transition. I’m equipped with a “new” used car, a 2002 Toyota Camry that is drum tight and ready to take me wherever I need to go in order to see tornadoes. It won’t be long now. See y’all under the meso!

Respect for the Victims: Some Thoughts on Storm Chaser Banter

Several weeks ago, en route toward a storm chasers’ conference in Minneapolis, my long-time chase partner Bill Oosterbaan and I caught lunch in Parkersburg, Iowa. Five years before, on May 25, 2008, Bill, his brother, Tom, Jason Harris, and I had intercepted a tornadic supercell half an hour after it leveled the southern third of that town, claiming seven lives. It was the second EF-5 tornado recorded using the Enhanced Fujita Scale (the first tornado destroyed Greensburg, Kansas, in 2007), and I was curious to visit the community it had impacted.

As we headed north into Parkersburg, just two signs of the disaster greeted us: wind-torn trees which bore silent testimony to the horror of that grim afternoon, and street after street of new homes and commercial structures. In that 150-year-old prairie town, the delineation between old buildings to the north and brand-new ones to the south was sharp, and it was telling. This town had endured something far beyond a bad windstorm. It had been forever altered by one of nature’s most violent and lethal forces. In just two or three brief minutes, one-third of the town had been swept away–homes leveled, businesses demolished, loved ones lost, bodies maimed, traumatic memories imprinted indelibly in the minds and emotions of survivors, and the history of an entire 1,870-person community dramatically shaped. Henceforth, Parkersburg would be one of those towns whose residents speak in terms of “before the tornado” and “after the tornado.”

As Bill and I walked down the sidewalk toward a family restaurant in the old downtown section, Bill remarked, “I can hardly wait to get out and chase this spring! Man, I hope we get some good storms.”

“Careful,” I said. “Remember where we are.”

Bill understood immediately. “Good point,” he agreed.

It’s so easy for even older, long-time chasers like Bill and me to forget. We’re enthralled with tornadoes and severe storms, we’re passionate about what we do, and we love to talk about it to the point where we lose track of how terribly dark the dark side of our interest can be. But those who have survived that dark side can never forget.

I look forward to an active storm chasing season this year, certainly better than in 2012. But as we chasers begin to feel our blood stir with the approach of spring, let’s bear in mind what we’re dealing with. We’re sometimes glib in our speech, and we say things jokingly or casually that we don’t really mean.

On Facebook and other social media, I run across comments like, “Bring on the EF-4’s!” or, “I hope I see an EF-5.” That’s typical chatter for storm chasers, particularly newer ones. But do you really want to see an EF-5? Remember, the EF Scale is a damage rating, so consider its implications. Saying that you’d like to witness an upper-end-EF tornado is different from saying you hope to see a mile-wide, violent wedge.

I would love to see just such a wedge, or two, or five or more, churning across the open plains this year. Gimme, gimme, I’m a junkie!

But would I like to see an EF-5? No. Not considering it most likely means that neighborhoods have been leveled and people killed. I hope I never, ever witness something as horrible as Joplin.

On three occasions, twice by night and once by day, I’ve tracked tornadoes as they hit towns. Chances are, eventually I’ll see something along the lines of Greensburg, and I’ll have video to show and a story to tell. But that will simply be because I was following the storm, not because I expected or wanted it to do something awful. Even EF-3 and lower tornado damage reflects a terrifying, hugely impactful, and sometimes deadly event for those in the path of the whirlwind. Chasers who witness such destruction inflicted on a community are sobered by it, shaped by it, and sometimes haunted by it.

So as we enter tornado season, let’s be mindful of what these storms can do and have done, year after year in town after town. My enthusiasm for chasing may not be be shared by the waitress who’s serving me lunch in some small Kansas town, who lost her home, husband, and child in a storm.

A Universal Chromatic Lick

Universal Chromatic LickThe lick shown here will fit in pretty much any harmonic situation (click on it to enlarge it). You can work it as you please, then resolve it on a chord tone and move on.

I like to start it on the flat five of a dominant chord, particularly an altered dominant or a V7b9. The first measure here, for instance, could pair with an F#7b9, and the next measure with an E7b9, and so on, moving downward by whole step with each measure and resolving finally to an F# major chord in the last bar.

You could just as easily maintain an F#7 throughout the entire lick. It will work fine, with dissonances justifying themselves as either leading or passing tones.

The lick also works well with a minor chord, though instead of starting on the flat five, you might try starting on the fourth or fifth. Really, just experiment and decide what you like.

The nice thing about a lick like this is that you can use just fragments of it–a single bar is nice–or you can coast on it for a bit till your brain finds a jump-off point, then launch into a new creative direction.

Have fun with this little device. And if you enjoyed this post, be sure to check out my many other articles on jazz theory, exercises, and solo transcriptions.

NOTICE: STORMHORN THEME IS BEING UPGRADED

This site’s long-threatened change of theme is now underway. It is a custom theme designed by my lady Lisa, so it’s not as easy as just pulling the trigger and having everything fall into place. However, much of the upgrade is now completed, to the point where I’ve edited this post to reflect recent changes.

One major cosmetic change that is still on the way is the addition of an image slider underneath the header. It will be a nice touch once it’s installed, but it has presented problems, and there’s no telling how long it will take to get them resolved. It’s not a front-burner issue, but look for the slider to appear sometime within the next few months.

Other than that, the changes will filter in one by one, and some you may not even notice since they’re internal.

Patience, patience! We’ll git ‘er done, and I think you’ll like the new Stormhorn.com.

–Bob

Presenting Big Band Nouveaux

Beginning with the new year, I’ve spent a number of Monday nights practicing with West Michigan’s newest (that I’m aware of) jazz venture: Big Band Nouveaux. Under the leadership of Grand Rapids tenor saxophonist Michael Doyle, this band is a collective of top-drawer jazz musicians that absolutely kicks butt.

Some months ago, Mike contacted me about a project he had up his sleeve. Would I be interested in participating? Mike is a great musician, so naturally he immediately got my attention, but I have to confess that when he mentioned big band music, I felt lukewarm. The big band format has never been my passion. Nothing against it, but I’ve always leaned toward smaller combos: more freedom, more flexibility, more interplay between musicians. That’s just my preference.

But Big Band Nouveaux is a different breed. It is unquestionably the most incendiary big band I’ve ever played in, with great charts that offer plenty of room for soloists to stretch and with some tremendously talented musicians in the lineup: Paul Lesinski, Fred Knapp, Isaac Norris, Louis Rudner, Mark Wells, and Arnaldo Alcevedo, just to name a few. Veteran Blue Lake Radio jazz announcer Lazaro Vega is honing his trumpet chops with the brass section; our fearless leader, the man in the pork pie hat, Mike, is playing first tenor; and Tyler Beer and I are making the alto sax charts happen. The arrangements are uber-hip, and playing with this ensemble has been more fun than I ever imagined.

Last Monday we recorded some demo tracks for the band. (Big thanks to Paul Lesinski for bringing in his recording equipment and then doing the mixdowns during the course of this week. Great job, Paul!) And I know that Mike is doing his best to hustle up some gigs for the band. We’ve still got our work cut out for us in terms of building our repertoire, but keep your eyes out for this molten-hot outfit. It will be making the scene in the coming months, and you definitely want to catch it when it hits the clubs.

Gulf of Mexico Sea Surface Temperatures and the 2013 Storm Season

Every year, the same question inevitably comes up: What is the upcoming tornado season going to be like?

The only truly definitive answer is no definitive answer. No one knows for sure till spring arrives, and the best any of us can go by are guesses, some better informed than others. I’m prepared to offer a few thoughts on the matter, but that’s all they are: thoughts, sheer speculation, items for consideration, not convictions or predictions; and they are those of a layman, not a professional meteorologist or a climatology expert.

With that caveat clearly stated,  I have some hopes that this year will offer a few more “big” chase opportunities than 2012. True, the horrible drought that put the kibosh on setups last year after April 14 hasn’t gone away, nor does it show any sign of letup. And without any evaporative boost from moist earth or vegetation, dewpoints are apt to mix out in the Great Plains. That’s no news to anyone.

ENSO 2013 SST Forecast MapsHowever, I have noticed that sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are above normal, and the CPC’s (Climate Prediction Center) ENSO maps forecast them to remain so. Below are the most recent maps, current as of January 28,  covering the period from February through June, 2013. Click on the image to enlarge it. At the top right, you’ll see the Gulf of Mexico shaded in orange, indicating an average temperature deviation of 0.5 to 1.0 degree Celsius above normal closer to shore, and normal farther out.

These are coarse approximations, of course. But you can drill down a little further by checking out current buoy observations against average station temperatures, courtesy of the NODC (National Oceanographic Data Center). Below is their table showing current station obs for February 3 to the far left; and, extending to the right of the obs from some of the stations, average normal monthly temperatures.* A quick glance will tell you that SSTs were well above average for this date, and in light of the ENSO maps, it seems reasonable to think that they will remain so. In fact, today’s and yesterday’s readings seem to be about a month ahead of the game, though granted, those are just two days, and there are bound to be plenty of  fluctuations through the rest of the month.

NODC Current and Avg SSTs

What I feel safe in saying is that the overall higher SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico suggest a better moisture fetch than last year’s generally anemic return flow. Maybe the Midwest will benefit most from it, and I for one won’t weep if there are some decent setups closer to home. I can’t think of a better place to chase storms than the flatlands of Illinois.

However, it seems to me that Tornado Alley also stands a better chance of action as well, provided the polar jet cooperates this year by showing up farther south, where richer incursions of moisture can get at the energy. Neutral conditions that favor neither El Nino nor La Nina this spring strike me as more promising than last year’s La Nina.

I weigh the above information against recent (i.e. January 29) CPC drought maps, which don’t paint the rosiest of pictures for most of the Great Plains but look good farther east and in the northern plains. Below is the most current drought monitor maps, released January 29; and the drought outlook, valid from January 17 through April 30.

CPC Drought Info 1-29-13

Again, I’m neither a climatologist nor a meteorologist, just someone who likes to piece information together and see whether it bears out. Maybe it won’t. My original hunch was that, because of the drought, our storm season would be a repeat of last year’s, starting early and dying young. And maybe that’s the way it will be. But if I correctly understand the implications of warmer-than-normal GOM temperatures, it seems to me that this year could be at least modestly more active than last year’s abysmal storm season and might even hold a few surprises. It certainly can’t get any worse.

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* Station observations shown are for the western Gulf. Obs for the eastern Gulf are also available at the NODC site.