Forecast Model Simulations for 1965 Palm Sunday Tornadoes: Part 1

Today I’m making the trip to State College, Pennsylvania, where I’ll be overnighting and then meeting tomorrow with operational and research meteorologist David Beachler at the CCX National Weather Service office.

Earlier this year–thanks to John Laurens at KGRR, who contacted him on my behalf–David took such forecasting data as exists on the 1965 Palm Sunday Tornadoes and ran it through a computer. (That’s putting it quite simply, I’m sure.) The result is a veritable blizzard of hourly model simulations which I’m hoping to narrow down to something that can give me new insights into the second worst Great Lakes/Midwest tornado outbreak of modern times. If all goes well, one of the results well be an engaging scenario for the storm chasing community.

Of course, a project of this nature will take some refining. The first hurdle is my own ignorance as a non-meteorologist. It’s one thing for a layman like me to use forecast models in identifying target areas for storm chases; it’s another thing to understand the whys and wherefores of those models.

A second challenge is to sift through the accuracy of the data, since we’re talking about a massive amount of extrapolation from a paucity of decades-old source material; and a third is to distill the immensity of info that David has provided into a reasonably straightforward, meaningful synopsis.

What I’m hoping for, in the end, is a series of surface and upper-air charts that can answer the question, “If the same synoptic conditions that produced the Palm Sunday Tornadoes unfolded today, what might we see in the models from a few days out until the time when tornadoes started dropping?”

This project has been in the wings for a while as part of a larger project which I’m keeping mum about for now. I want to get this part taken care of first, and I’m excited that I’m finally getting to meet with David and go over the data with him, so I can better understand how to interpret it and narrow down a selection from it that will be most useful. I’m extremely appreciative of David’s work, and his willingness to help me sift through it.

Gotta go. I need to hit the road in a couple hours. Here’s hoping for good driving.