The GFS wants to cap the crap out of tomorrow’s setup, but the NAM paints a much more positive picture in northwestern Missouri. Having looked over the SREF, I have a hunch that it’s the GFS that is out to lunch regarding convective inhibition, at least in that neck of the woods. Frankly, I find this thought rather annoying since I’ll just be armchair chasing tomorrow, and I feel pretty certain that some significant tornadoes are going to occur in northern Missouri and maybe Iowa.

For those of you who will be chasing, you might enjoy taking a gander at these NAM model soundings for 22Z Monday, April 5. (Click on the images to enlarge them.) If those verify, then there ought to be some very busy storm chasers tomorrow afternoon. The soundings are for Saint Joseph and Kansas City, Missouri.

If you’re one of those who are hitting the road tomorrow in pursuit of Big Weather: have fun, get great photos/video, and stay safe.