Looks like one heck of a storm system will be moving into the Great Lakes this Friday. Today’s 18Z GFS shows a potent, 976 mb low centered on the Minnesota/Canada border on the 30th at 18Z, deepening to 972 mb as it moves northeast into Ontario by 00Z. The ECMWF is less aggressive in its timing, and I hope it’s the more accurate of the two long-range models, since I think it offers better potential for more than just straight-line winds.

While they may not be perfectly in sync, both models agree that we’ll be seeing some heavy weather on the 30th. It’s not exactly a storm chaser’s dream scenario, with little in the way of directional shear and with storm motions in the warp speed range. I see “linear” written all over this event. But this time of year, I’ll take whatever I can get and be grateful.

Positives: dewpoints in the 60s reaching into Michigan, at least a semblance of CAPE at around 500 j/kg, and certainly no lack of bulk shear. Judging by the size of the system and the tightness of the isobars, we are in for a real October leaf-stripper.

And here comes the old disclaimer we all know and love: we’ll see what further model runs reveal. The NAM will be adding its paint to the picture shortly. I wish it would agree with the Euro in slowing the system down, giving Indiana and Michigan a good dose of moisture along with backed surface winds. Fingers crossed and hoping for a gift, because this will very likely be my last shot at anything resembling severe convection until March or April, 2010.