Looks like one heck of a storm system will be moving into the Great Lakes this Friday. Today’s 18Z GFS shows a potent, 976 mb low centered on the Minnesota/Canada border on the 30th at 18Z, deepening to 972 mb as it moves northeast into Ontario by 00Z. The ECMWF is less aggressive in its timing, and I hope it’s the more accurate of the two long-range models, since I think it offers better potential for more than just straight-line winds.
While they may not be perfectly in sync, both models agree that we’ll be seeing some heavy weather on the 30th. It’s not exactly a storm chaser’s dream scenario, with little in the way of directional shear and with storm motions in the warp speed range. I see “linear” written all over this event. But this time of year, I’ll take whatever I can get and be grateful.
Positives: dewpoints in the 60s reaching into Michigan, at least a semblance of CAPE at around 500 j/kg, and certainly no lack of bulk shear. Judging by the size of the system and the tightness of the isobars, we are in for a real October leaf-stripper.
And here comes the old disclaimer we all know and love: we’ll see what further model runs reveal. The NAM will be adding its paint to the picture shortly. I wish it would agree with the Euro in slowing the system down, giving Indiana and Michigan a good dose of moisture along with backed surface winds. Fingers crossed and hoping for a gift, because this will very likely be my last shot at anything resembling severe convection until March or April, 2010.
Adam Lucio, Danny Neal and I have all been talking about this for awhile. I was surprised to see SPC already outlooked. The GFS is showing a beautiful negative tilt with 110kt bulk shear (!!!!!) over us. Some of the forecasted soundings in the thumb from todays 12Z run show impressive tornadoes. 00Z GFS is coming out, and 00Z NAM is out till 12Z on Friday which is showing an impressive LLJ even at that time of the day bringing all that moisture and warm temps from the gulf northward.
It would just be my luck that I have to work on Friday, and don’t have a real easy way out of work. I may have to offer someone money to work for me so I can chase this. If it looks like it’s going to pan out into a heck of a Tornado outbreak (Looks like 10/24/01 only much more intense – https://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/011024/index.html) I might have to contract swine flu. Or just call in dead. lol
I sure hope you’re right, Ben. I haven’t been as impressed with the wind fields, but I probably need to get my mind into an 18-21Z mode. After all, it is October. The new 00Z GFS shows around 80 degrees veering from the surface to near 500 mb right around here in Grand Rapids at 18Z. That ought to work, and I sure can’t complain about moisture. I don’t expect much more than a straight-line wind event, honestly, but that’s the Michigan mindset, and you know it’s a ticket to heartbreak: buy into it and you wind up beating your head on the wall when tornadoes start popping up where you could’a been.
I’ve definitely got my fingers crossed on this system. Can’t wait to see what the NAM has got to say once it moves into the afternoon forecast hours. I haven’t bothered to scope it out yet, and I probably should.
Here’s to Friday and the Great Lakes Chase Contingent. My wish for you: may you find ample reason to come down with H1N1.