So far most of the systems that have moved across the CONUS have lacked the moisture needed to produce tornadoes. But that may be about change toward the end of March. If the GFS is good for at least suggesting possibilities, then the Gulf of Mexico may finally start to open up and introduce 60s dewpoints well up into Dixie Alley, and upper 50s into the Midwest.

Just for kicks, I ran a series of today’s 12Z models for 21Z and 18Z out through 384 hours, and I found the first glimmer of better days around 159 hours in east Texas, shifting to Mississippi and Alabama at 180 hours. By the end of March, around 300 hours, deeper incursions of adequate to decent dewpoints were stretching north.

Let’s not get into the foibles of long-range forecasts, okay? We all know about them, and this post isn’t even a wishcast, just pure speculation. At this time of year, with El Nino gradually weakening, it seems reasonable to think that the moisture fetch will start improving as March transitions into April.

On the one hand, the ENSO charts call for cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Gulf; on the other hand, warmer weather ahead, common sense, and plain old gut instinct suggest that something’s gotta give. A tornado-less February, fine; a downscale March, understandable; but I just can’t image a convectively wimpy April.