Now, here’s something you don”t normally expect on the day after Christmas…
Them there is dewpoints, folks–juicy, 55-degree-plus dewpoints stretching as far north as Saint Louis, Missouri, by 18z Friday, and Renselaar, Indiana, by 00z Friday night. And Saturday gets even crazier, pulling a mid-fifties fetch well into Michigan.
With wind fields and helicities every bit as wild as you’d expect for this time of year, this could be the ultimate in late-season storm chasing, or in early-season action, depending on how you do your books.
Several days ago I was just crossing my fingers. I’m still keeping them crossed, but with the WRF now chiming in to corroborate what the GFS has been consistently depicting, I think it’s time to practice saying the words, “severe weather outbreak.” Today’s SPC extended outlook agrees:
WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS LEADING CREDENCE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF 60 F DEWPOINTS MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY BY DAY 5/SATURDAY. IN ALL…CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A MULTIFACETED/ALL HAZARDS SEVERE RISK WILL MATERIALIZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN OK/OZARKS/ARKLATEX TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY FOR DAY 4/FRIDAY INTO DAY 5/SATURDAY.
I’m currently considering St. Louis south toward the bootheel, possibly into Arkansas, and hoping that the next run or two nudges Friday’s setup just a shade to the east and north. Bill and I are talking about taking off around midnight Christmas night, and Kurt may join us if he is able.
At this point, I think it”s safe to say we’re in for a winter outbreak that could stretch as far north as central Illinois and Indiana. Should be interesting.
Looking for that perfect, last-minute Christmas gift for the storm chaser in your life? Consider giving a tasteful holiday package of backing winds, veering upper levels, and a little mixed layer CAPE–perfect as a stocking stuffer, and sure to be appreciated by Midwest chasers this Friday and Saturday.
