Sixty-degree temperatures and fifty-five-degree dewpoints: can this possibly be Michigan on December 27?
Yup. And that”s not all, folks. I awoke in the middle of last night to a wicked clap of thunder–interestingly, while dreaming I was out chasing storms. The dream I attribute to an acute case of supercell deficiency syndrome, but the thunder was a product of the vigorous system that cranked springtime temps and moisture on up into the Great Lakes.
After several days of vacillating over whether or not to chase, my buddy Bill and I concluded to sit this system out. This time of year, anything that smells even remotely of convective weather is tantalizing, but realistically, anything we could get to within a reasonable day”s drive would be a linear event with embedded supercells in a low-CAPE/high helicity environment. I’ve gotten skunked by those setups enough times to not feel particularly eager about going out of my way to chase one.
Still, like I said, this is December…and the action bumped farther north than the SPC had anticipated…and there were four tornado reports near Kansas City…and…naaaah, Bill and I made the right call. I’ll wait for something a little more promising before I make the drive.
Besides, the tornado watches kept extending north, bringing the action our way as the moisture pumped into northern Illinois and Indiana along with absolutely crazy helicities. Michigan actually wound up in a slight risk area, and with storms continuing to pop up across the landscape, theoretically, there was at least the possibility that something could just sort of drop into my lap. It didn’t, and that”s what it would have taken for me to motivate myself for a chase, but then, we Michigan storm chasers live on hopes and dreams.
As I write, RUC is showing a 1 km helicity of 950 near Fort Wayne, and earlier I saw a reading of 1,050 near where I live. If there had been any CAPE worth speaking of to sustain updrafts, any storms that formed could easily have gone tornadic. But as I said, it’s December. I’m happy just to have felt some close dewpoints, and to have ventured outside without needing a jacket.
With a fairly warm rain and balmy temperatures, the snowmelt has been rapid and flooding extensive. And to make matters still more interesting, the fog generated by mild air interacting with cold snow fields has been both beautiful and treacherous. My first of a number of encounters today with flooded roads came upon me unawares; thanks to the fog, I didn’t see the water covering the pavement until it was too late for me to do anything about it except keep on going and hope I didn’t kill my engine. Thankfully, the water wasn’t deep enough to do any damage, and from that point on, I was in a state of alert.
Temps are still in the fifties, but a cooldown is on the way and snow is in the forecast. Nothing major, though. Compared to what we”ve had, the next few days look to be a cinch. I do have every confidence that winter will snap back down on us like an elastic band. But I also wonder whether the weather machine has any more convective surprises in store for us. Time to take a look at the long-range GFS and see whether another fetch of Gulf moisture might not be ramping up with more convective delights. I wouldn”t mind, not at all.
