While a few skeptics will no doubt persist, it now appears certain that the present, moderate El Nino will stay with us through the winter, and possibly even strengthen. Here is what the Climate Prediction Center has to say in its November 23 update:
• During the last four weeks, positive equatorial SST [sea surface temperature] anomalies persisted across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
• During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in some regions across the eastern half of the Pacific.
• Nearly all ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10. The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño, but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) through December-January-February 2009-10.
• A majority of ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through March-April-May 2010.
All of the above adds up to the fact that the western Great Lakes region is in for a mild winter. Those of us in Michigan who remember last year’s 200-inch snowfall and bone-freezing cold will welcome the above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation.
The South will also be seeing relief, albeit in a different but no less welcome form. Average to cooler temperatures and above-average precipitation will bring relief to at least some of the areas blasted by last year’s severe drought. Texas looks to be a major beneficiary.
The plenitude of rainfall in store for the southern Gulf Coast and Texas suggests that whatever concerns we may face during next year’s storm season, moisture won’t be one of them. Particularly after last May’s huge letdown, it’s nice to think that in 2010 there ought to be plenty of gas to fuel the convective engine.
Of course, that’s still a long way off. Right now, the best we can do is cross our fingers and hope for no repeats of 2009’s death ridge. I have a hunch that this coming year will be a good one. But first we’ve got a winter to get through, and it’s nice to think this one won’t be as nasty as its predecessor.
