The latest storm system has moved through Michigan, leaving behind it a couple inches of fresh snow here in Caledonia. The National Weather Service office in Grand Rapids is calling for lake effect snow this afternoon, but the bulk of that should be off to my west. Right now, as the clock approaches noon this New Year”s Day, the sun is filtering through a high cirrus film, casting a creamy light onto trees frosted with a confectionery coating. Snow is drifting out of the sky in particles almost too fine to even be considered a proper snowfall: more like a snow drizzle–the kind that turns so easily from a gentle precipitate into a wind-driven spray that plasters your face and kicks up off the fields into wind-driven whiteouts. Right now it appears to be behaving itself–but whoops! there goes a gust kicking an eddy of white off the side of my balcony. The forecast calls for blustery conditions as the day progresses. This is a good day to stay inside, as are most January days, unless you”re a winter outdoors buff, which I am not.
What we have here is a classic Michigan winter scene. Yet, strange to say, I”m contemplating the possibility of a storm chase early next week. Oh, believe me, I know I”m dreaming, but one does that this time of year. And the GFS (Global Forecasting System) has been pretty consistent these past few days I”ve followed it in predicting a vigorous low drawing sixty to sixty-five degree dewpoints and around fifteen-hundred j/kg CAPE up into south central and eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas.
Next Monday”s BUFKIT reading for Fort Worth indicates a long, skinny CAPE–not terribly impressive, and taken with other borderline severe weather parameters, it”s nothing to die for. But it”s not bad, either, and as I said, I”m dreaming. This many days out from the event, that”s all I can do, and it”s particularly nice to be doing it in January. Besides, I”ve gotta love that tight dewpoint spread, suggestive of nice, low cloud bases.
Hey, it could happen. It probably won”t, but it could. I could actually wind up heading out next week on my first storm chase of the year. Call me mad, say that Supercell Deficiency Syndrome has robbed me of my grip on reality–but keep in mind that I saw my first tornado last year in late February just east of Kansas City. Anything is possible.
My chase buddies, Bill and Tom, are game to go. They”re blocking out time, just in case. That”s the storm chaser”s mantra when you live in Michigan: “Just in case.” You live with a perennial combination of low expectations and high hopes. So, as I kick back here in my La-Z-Boy sofa watching the snow drizzle down out of the New Year”s Day grayness, I”ll sum up my outlook by saying that it”s never too early to dream. That”s not a bad principle to apply any time of year to anything you please.

