In a recent post, I poked a bit of gentle fun at the Farmers’ Almanac’s long-range forecasts, speculating that the Almanac’s weather sages were consulting woolly bear caterpillars to determine the nature of the coming winter.
Writing the article was good for a grin, but doing so got me to wondering: How the heck do those folks over at Farmers’ Almanac go about making such perilously far-out weather predictions, anyway? Surely they must have a few highly knowledgeable weather heads on staff with access to some extremely sophisticated technology, along with a formidable understanding of global climatology, oceanography, and whatnot.
So I posed the question on Stormtrack, and Lansing meteorologist Rob Dale responded with a link back to the Almanac which answered my question beautifully. Turns out the Farmers’ Almanac is far more advanced than I ever dreamed.
What’s their secret? A roomful of meteorologists hunched over sophisticated computers? A database brimming with decades worth of climatological statistics?
Nope. The Farmer’s Alamanac doesn’t need computers, and it doesn’t need no stinkin’ mets, climatologists, or databases. No, they’ve got something better: a solitary “calculator” named Caleb Weatherby and a nearly 200-year-old, proprietary formula developed by the Almanac’s founder, David Young, which allows Weatherby to calculate the Almanac’s forecasts several years in advance.
Did you get that? Several years. We are no longer talking weather forecasting here, we are talking prophecy. But perhaps prophecy is one of the secret ingredients blended into Young’s incredible formula.
According to the Almanac, “Since 1818, this carefully guarded formula has been passed along from calculator to calculator and has never been revealed*.” No one else besides Caleb Weatherby knows it. Not the SPC, not NASA, not the CIA, not Chuck Doswell, not even your mother.
While the formula eludes even the lofty craniums at NOAA, who must resort to more primitive devices such as GOES, Doppler radar, atmospheric soundings, numerical models, and a fleet of high-tech computers, the Almanac assures us that their formula “considers many factors, such as sunspots, moon phases, and other astronomical and atmospheric factors and conditions.” They forgot to mention eye of newt, but I suppose that would be giving away too much.
Just in case you’re doubtful, the Almanac furnishes a long list of their forecasting triumphs. I have to tell you, though–and I don’t wish to shock you, but confession is good for the heart–that I’m nevertheless a bit skeptical. Spin is spin, and a lot of things can be spun, including the conclusions extrapolated from weather statistics and meteorological crapshoots.
To be fair, the Almanac admits that “weather forecasting still remains an inexact science. Therefore, our forecasts may sometimes be imperfect. If you are planning an outdoor event, we recommend that you also check forecasts from local sources.”
That last, modest caveat is a bit of good advice, and if you’re a fan of Farmers’ Almanac forecasts, you’d do well to take heed. Go ahead and plan your family reunion picnic at the park six months in advance based on what the Almanac says; but if I were you, when it comes down to the week of, I’d place a whole lot more faith in the predictive expertise of your local WFO than in something generated by the Almanac’s calculator several years prior. I mean, you never know–ol’ Caleb might have been missing a few essential chicken bones from his rattle when he was doing his forecasting dance for that day.
Now, please, please, please…if you’re a die-hard devotee of the Farmers’ Almanac, don’t take me too seriously. I’m just having fun, but I really think fondly of the Almanac. It’s a beloved and revered slice of Americana that bears a torch of genuine, irreplaceable folk wisdom, and if you swear by its forecasts, great. Continue to swear by them (or at them, when they don’t pan out quite the way you expected). I’ve personally enjoyed reading them, and they’re harmless enough. The world would be a poorer place without them, and certainly less amusing.
But when it comes to chasing storms or going camping, I’ll probably look elsewhere for my weather information. Punxatawney Phil, for instance. He’d make a great chase mascot, and I’ll bet he’s a whiz at pinpointing storm initiation.
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* All quotes excerpted from the Farmers’ Almanac article, “How does the Farmers’ Almanac Predict the Weather? [sic]” Article’s web page address at the time of this blog post: https://www.farmersalmanac.com/farmers-almanac-forecasts
