I love this balmy, blue fall weather. But down inside me, not too far from the surface, convective starvation is gnawing away. Does 2009 have a “second season” in store? Judging by this year’s insipid, ridge-robbed primary storm season, there’s reason to wonder, but I sure hope so.
There may be a flicker of hope for a week from now, at least if you go by the ECMWF.
ECMWF 500 mb winds for Sunday night.
As for the GFS…mmmph. More zonal flow, though the sea level pressure map suggests a hint of troughing for the northern CONUS. Not anything to pique one’s interest, though. And here’s the SPC’s 4-8 day outlook:
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS -- WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE EVENT -- ARE FORECAST THROUGH DAY 5-6 /I.E. FRI. AND SAT. SEPT. 18-19/...AFTER WHICH SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THOUGH SOME HINTS THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE FROM DAY 6 ONWARD...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW ATTM. UNTIL THEN...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AT BEST...AS SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT KEEPS THE MUCH OF THE U.S. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LONGWAVE MEAN RIDGING. GIVEN THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND...NO SEVERE THREAT AREAS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FORECAST.
I’m rooting for the Euro. It sure would be nice to see some storms. Any kind of storms. Just some decent lightning would be much appreciated right about now.
As I’ve said more than once this year, I’m crossing my fingers but I’m sure not holding my breath.
