Mid-40s and Rain: Enjoy It While You Can

Here it is, January 24, and are we residents of Michigan up to our waists in snow, fighting off polar bears and periodically detaching eight-inch snotsicles from our noses? Nooooo! We are staring out the window at a mostly snowless landscape drenched in rain as 45-degree temperatures and 40-degree dewpoints surge into the area in response to the low that’s presently centered just across Lake Michigan. KGRR even mentions the possibility of isolated thunderstorms south of I-96, and farther south, the SPC shows a 5 percent tornado outlook across parts of Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida. The squall line that is presently moving through Alabama looks pretty robust, and Dixie Alley may be poised for another visitation.

As for my fellow Michiganians, if you prefer warmth and rain to cold and ice, then these present conditions are pure January bliss. But if you’re a snow person, don’t worry, you’ll get your way. This relatively warm stretch of weather we’ve been enjoying for the last week or so is about to come to an end. Snow is in the forecast for tonight, and from here on we begin our plunge back into the twenties. Who knows when we’ll reemerge?

I’m not counting on its being anytime soon. I haven’t looked at the GFS lately, but I don’t need to in order to get the picture. Snow, snow, and more snow. Cold, cold, and more cold. The Grand Rapids WFO calls for very winter-like temperatures in the 20s through Saturday, and I doubt that the days following will alter that picture much. So, Nanook, don’t put away your parka just yet. You’ll still have plenty of use for it between now and April.

Ongoing Severe Weather in Dixie Alley

Looks like that surface low I wrote about a few posts ago is delivering its payload to Dixie Alley. Yesterday tornadoes spun down in northeast Texas and Louisiana, and now today it appears that the action will continue farther east.

I can’t help feeling a bit smug about the forecast and target area I sent to my chase partner, Bill Oosterbaan, who I believe has been down in Kentucky on business. After doing a quick-‘n-dirty scan of various NAM parameters and model soundings, I emailed him that he might have a crack at some action along I-40 between Jackson and Nashville, Tennessee.

With the 1630 SWODY1 now in, I see that my target area is in the heart of the SPC’s 5 percent tornado outlook. Tennessee may be under the gun in a while. Sure hope Bill is in a position to take advantage of the new year’s first chase opportunity.