Storm Chasing in Illinois on Wednesday

The formidable system that ground out large, violent tornadoes in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas on Tuesday will move east on Wednesday to bring another round of severe weather to southeast

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Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. And finally–finally!–I’m in a position to do some storm chasing. Financial constraints have majorly crimped my expeditions so far this season, but no way am I missing tomorrow.

Based on Tuesday morning’s NAM run, I’d been eyeballing Effingham, Illinois, as a preliminary target for trolling the I-70 corridor. The sounding for that area looked mighty pretty, as you can plainly see.

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Now, however, with the 00Z runs in, I’m inclined to shift farther east near Terre Haute. Here’s another model sounding, courtesy of TwisterData, for near Oblong, Illinois. Maybe not quite as sexily backed at the surface as the Effingham sounding, but with stronger low-level winds and definitely quite functional. Maps of 500 mb winds and SBCAPE (see below) paint in a little more detail and suggest that near the Illinois/Indiana border is a good choice.

Tomorrow morning’s data will tell all. Meanwhile, it’s time for me to get my ugly-rest. I am so excited about the prospect of finally getting out and feeling the moisture, watching cumulus towers erupt and organize into glowering supercells, and hopefully videotaping some tornadoes out on the flat, wide-open Illinois prairie! A good night’s sleep and then I’m off in the morning.

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May 25, 2011 by
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Tomorrow’s Chase Scenario

If I were to pick a chase target for tomorrow, it would be Rolla, Missouri. That’s based on a sampling of the 6Z model soundings of the GFS, NCEP’s present model preference.

Frankly, though, I can’t get too excited about this system. True, it seems to be shifting the activity to within striking distance, where I could conceivably go chasing and still make it back Friday morning in time to make an appointment that I absolutely can’t miss. But instability isn’t all that great, and besides, who wants to go chasing in Missouri hill country?

If the NAM verifies, things will shift north a bit. But I don’t see that making a practical difference. It’s a marginal setup at this point, and unless things improve, I don’t think I’ll feel short-changed sitting this round out. Maybe the next trough will be an improvement.

ADDENDUM: Ouch! Just looked at the SPC’s afternoon update. If they’re right, then only the desperate and the insane will be chasing tomorrow. They’ve pulled the 30 percent risk down mostly into Arkansas, tapping on southeast Oklahoma, northeast Texas, and extreme southern Missouri down around Branson. Anyone for a chase through the Ozarks?

September 30, 2009 by
Filed Under: Storm Chasing, Weather Tagged With: , , , , ,