My First North Dakota Chase This Saturday

I’ve never chased storms in North Dakota, but that’s about to change. Tomorrow Rob Forry and I are hitting the road for the severe weather event that’s shaping up for Saturday along the Canadian border.

This has been a puzzling scenario to forecast, with the models gradually aligning after painting some radically different scenarios. The NAM has wanted to move the system eastward faster and place the better  tornado action across the Canadian border, while the GFS and Euro have been more  optimistic and, I believe–I hope–more accurate. What the heck–Canada may get more shear, but North Dakota has the big CAPE.

We’ll find out Saturday. Lacking an extended driver’s license that would grant me access to Canada, I’m counting on North Dakota to deliver. I feel confident

enough that it will that I’m taking the chance. I keep eyeballing the region from Minot east toward Rugby and Devil’s Lake, and north, and a bit south. Skew-Ts have looked consistently good in those parts, and there’s plenty of CAPE to get the job done–around 4,500  J/kg MLCAPE per the GFS. My hope is that all that luscious, pent-up energy will produce something like what the NAM 4km nested CONUS radar shows at the top of this post.

Come on! Big tubes and gorgeous storms drifting across the wide sublimity of the North Dakota landscape, and then steak and beer later on.

How It Feels to Not Be Chasing

Right now my buddies are out west chasing this latest storm system. I’m not with them because I can’t afford it. Money has been extremely tight and what I take in has got to go toward paying the bills and putting food on the table for Lisa and me. That’s the reality of life. I’ve been on a couple of unproductive chases so far this year, and now that a decent system is finally in play out west, I’ve got to pass it up. I can’t even chase what promises to be a fabulous day today in Illinois. Once again I’ll be picking over the scraps later on here in Michigan. It’ll be nice to get some lightning, but it just isn’t the same.

Armchair chasers are typically regarded as off on the sidelines of storm chasing. But there’s a difference when you’ve been in the game and find yourself benched. You know what you’re missing. You’ve been looking forward to it all year with intense eagerness, like a kid looks forward to Christmas. So when you can’t do a thing about it unless it lands right in your lap–which in Michigan, land of cold fronts and veered surface winds, doesn’t happen often–it is extremely frustrating. SDS is one thing, but this is something else.

Armchair chasing? Nuts. I get to where I don’t even want to go near a radar. But I do anyway. I can’t seem to help myself. I want to see what’s happening with my friends, what storms they’re on. I look at the forecast models, too, hoping against hope that they’ll stop sticking their stupid tongues out at me and smile at me for once.

Today the RUC actually seems to do so. Here’s the 10Z KGRR sounding for 23Z this evening. Not bad. I just wish I believed that those surface winds and helicities were accurate, but I don’t, not with other models (NAM, GFS, and SREF) shouting them down. Besides, the HRRR composite reflectivity hates me. I can’t stand looking at it. Again, though, as with the radar, I do anyway. Storms progged to fire in northern Illinois and even south along the Michigan border…all I’d have to do is hop in my car, head west along I-80 and maybe down toward Peoria, or even just 80 miles south down US 131 toward the state line as a compensation prize, and I’d be in the sweet zone. But it ain’t gonna happen.

Rant, rant, rant. On this date last year I was on the most unforgettable chase of my life in northern South Dakota. Today, I wish this present system would just get on with it and get it over with so I can forget about weather, forget about the fact that I call myself a storm chaser when I’m not chasing storms. What a laugh. True, I’ll be chasing this evening locally for the first time for WOOD TV8. That I can at least afford, and it’s a nice way to work with the storms that we do get and possibly provide a bit of public service. But I don’t have high expectations. That’s a good thing here in populous West Michigan, but it doesn’t satisfy a convective jones. I just hope this season doesn’t drift into the summer pattern before I can get out and see at least one good tornadic supercell.

Okay, enough of this self-indulgent, babyish whining. I just had to get it out of my system, because in all seriousness, missing out on the action bothers me a lot, an awful lot, more than I can describe. It’s an absolutely miserable feeling. But it’s how things are, and life goes on.

Good luck out there in the Plains, Bill, Tom, and Mike–and Ben and Nick, though I know you guys are chasing separately. I hope you bag some great tornadoes today and over the next few days. As for me, it’s time to shower up, head to church, and remind myself that there’s more to life than this.

Major Winter Storm in Progress out East: Big Snow South of the Big Apple

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Which version of snowfall totals do you prefer–the NAM on the right, or the GFS, shown below? (Click images to enlarge.)

If you live out east, the question is purely academic. I doubt that you much care which forecast model is the more accurate, because either way, you’re going to be sitting under a ton of snow by tomorrow. That much is no secret. While the forecast models shown here are for 00Z Saturday night, the show has already started.

Farther down the page, you can see a level 2 radar grab from Sterling, VA, taken shortly after 10 p.m. It’s much prettier to look at than the picture

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that is unfolding over the nation’s capitol as I write in the form of heavy snow, freezing fog, mist, freezing rain, blustery winds, blizzard conditions–just about every kind of winter weather you can throw at one area in the space of a few miles as temperatures drift from below to above freezing.

The current Baltimore forecast for tonight and tomorrow reads as follows:

Tonight: Snow and areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 29. Breezy, with a east wind between 16 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 15 to 21 inches possible.

Saturday: Snow and areas of blowing snow. High near 29. Blustery, with a north wind between 18 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

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Ugh! For once I’ll take a Michigan winter forecast over what’s being served up elsewhere. Right now my friend Kathy out there in Greenbelt, MD, is getting her clock cleaned. It’s a good night for her and her boyfriend to eschew the Washington nightlife and hunker down inside. For that matter, I doubt there’s much happening in the way of a Washington nightlife on a night like tonight.

Meanwhile, down in the warm sector, much of eastern North Carolina is under a tornado watch. The radar shows a pretty grungy-looking, non-severe, low-topped squall line that doesn’t show much likelihood of putting out anything tornadic, but it nevertheless adds to the East Coast’s overall weather ambience.

Have fun out there, kiddies, those of you who live out east. As for me, I’m going to pour me a mugful of Bell’s Amber Ale and, for once, enjoy watching the snow not fall outside my window. Gloating over such things is permissible for lifelong natives of the Great Lakes.

Friday’s Outlook: A Real October Leaf-Stripper

Whichever model gives the more accurate picture–the GFS or the WRF-NMM–one thing is sure: we Michiganians can say good-bye to the leaves. This Friday’s weather system promises to be a real October leaf-stripper, with a formidable low-pressure center deepening rapidly as it moves through Ontario.

The two forecast models continue to differ in timing, with the GFS moving the cold front rapidly through the state’s mid-section by 18Z, while the NAM plays it more conservatively and backs the surface winds considerably more. The NAM is also much more aggressive with 850 mb winds, with the 12Z run calling for 75 knots (!!!), while the GFS dribbles out a paltry 55-knot LLJ.

I have a hunch that the GFS is closer to the truth, though of course, time will tell.

Both models agree that instability will be non-existent. Not much there to gladden the heart of a storm chaser. But by golly, we’ll be seeing some wind. Bye-bye leaves!

For the sake of comparison, I took a sampler of 6Z model soundings for both the GFS and the NAM for Jackson, Michigan–a nice, central location that should offer a good compromise between both models. The differences are striking. Click on the images to enlarge them. For 21Z, I’ve shown only the NAM; by that time, the GFS has the winds lined out.

Forecast hours for Friday, October 30

15Z

GFS

NAM

18Z

GFS

NAM

21Z

NAM

Next Week: Troughing in the Picture?

I’m prepared to get my hopes up a bit. The ECMWF and GFS both now appear to agree on a trough working its way through the country’s mid-section. Here’s the current GFS for 21Z Sunday afternoon:

GFS Sea Level Pressure for 21Z Sunday.

GFS Sea Level Pressure for 21Z Sunday.

Granted, there’s a lot more that needs to happen, such as mid-level winds and moisture connecting, but this will do for starters. It’s a better picture than yesterday.

The GFS wants to move this system through faster than the ECMWF, but at the moment I’m not going to worry my head about it. All I care about right now is, both forecast models are pointing to a bit of troughiness taking shape. It’s something to keep an eye on. Fingers remain crossed, and while I’m still not holding my breath, I’m hoping that the next few days will offer some reasons to do so.

Chicken Soup for the Solo

The meds that the doc prescribed for me seem to finally be working their mojo. I’m still coughing, but it’s no longer a painful cough, and yesterday’s feverishness has passed. Today I went out and bought a bunch of Amish chicken and a whole passel of assorted veggies and rice, and I made up a huge potful of chicken soup. I’ve heard more than one person tell me that the old wive’s tale is true: homemade chicken soup has a wholesome, curative property. I believe it. People breathing their last gasp have been known to revive at a mere whiff of my chicken soup.

Anyway, it’s been a week since I’ve played my horn, and in the interrim, I’ve felt so lousy that I haven’t even thought about it. As for storm chasing, ha. Good thing I didn’t go down to Tornado Alley last weekend with Bill and Tom–not only would I have been miserable, but by now they would be, too.

Storms have been lighting up the Plains pretty much all week. My friend Kurt Hulst was out in Oklahoma yesterday with his pal Nick, and he posted some nice pics on his blog. I’m assuming he caught the supercells in northern Texas earlier today as well. Can’t wait to see those photos.

Of course, I’ve been out of the action. Out of practice on my sax, out of the picture for chasing storms. In another couple of days, though, I should be ready to rumble. I just hope the weather feels the same way. My head is finally back on my shoulders only barely enough that I might start giving a rip about the forecast models, and maybe even be able to make some sense out of them again.

Enough for now. Tornadoes can wait. Right now, a bowlful of chicken soup is calling my name. If I eat enough, I might find myself in good enough shape by tomorrow to blow a few notes on my saxophone. Chicken soup for the solo. I like that idea.