Archives for October 30, 2008

It”s another gorgeous October day in Branson, Missouri, where I”m visiting my friend Lisa and enjoying the incredible natural beauty of the area.\r\n\r\nA few days ago, a cold punch from Canada plunged much of the nation into the freezing zone and gave the Great Lakes region its first taste of winter with a solid blast of lake effect snow. Here in Branson, the temperatures dipped for a couple days, but the skies have remained relentlessly clear, and yesterday was back up in the low seventies. Today will be a repeat. Tomorrow, however, gets a bit more interesting. The area may actually have a crack at a thunderstorm or two. I check out of Stonebridge Village in the morning, but I may stick around Branson in the interest of sharing a storm with Lisa, who loves heavy weather as much as I do.\r\n\r\nNot that I expect anything major. Major was back in May, and in reminiscing, I realize that this was the year for me of the HP supercell.\r\n\r\nActually, I”ve seen a fair number of HP supercells during my tenure as a storm chaser, just not anything as utterly black and nasty as the ones in Kansas on May 22 and 23. I suppose that”s because this is the first year I”ve gone on an extended chase in the Great Plains. In any event, I”ve come to the conclusion that I hate high precip supercells. They”re too dangerous to do much with. You can”t see a bloody thing, just rain and dark shadows that might or might not mean something. My preference is to keep my distance and seek out a safe opportunity for viewing. HPs are not nice, slow-moving classic structures with clear viewing, where you can just park on the edge of the mesocyclone, set out your lawn chair, and tripod your camera. No, these storms are unruly delinquents with switchblade knives, anything but convenient. I”ll take them if I have to, but I have a lot to learn about approaching them.\r\n\r\nI figure that if even veteran storm chasers are leery of HP supercells, my best policy is to treat them with considerable caution. I like to see what”s going on in the storm environment, and I do not like core punching. Several tornadic encounters near Oberlin, Kansas, on the 22nd convinced me how easy it can be to get caught with your pants down. You can have multiple circulations. You may not have a clear view of the entire meso, and hence can find yourself focusing on one area while, concealed in rain, something else may going on that you hadn”t anticipated. You just don”t know, and you can”t afford not to know. Out of sight, out of mind is a dangerous policy in storm chasing.\r\n\r\nYou can”t count on radar, either. It”s an incredible tool, but it has its limitations. The most current radar data is still at least four minutes old, and a lot can happen with a storm in four minutes, or even thirty seconds.\r\n\r\nStrange that I”d be thinking about HP supercells on this bright autumn day. Truth is, I miss the storms. I wish we”d get one last blast before the snows fly. I doubt we will, but one can dream.