What is with this winter? Two January warm-ups with severe weather, followed by two major winter storms–and now, another warm-up poised for Monday and Tuesday, with some potentially significant activity in the South, possibly reaching as far north as Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. My, life is interesting, at least if you”re a weather freak.
Without looking at the latest numerical models, just talking off the top of my head as I remember my last, quick glance at things last night, it looks like a vigorous trough will be swinging into the southern Great Plains, drawing up fifties dewpoints into northern Illinois and Indiana, with even better moisture in the Dixie alley. Nice, southerly surface winds veering to the southwest with height, respectable 0-6k vertical shear–there”s a weather event shapin” up, folks. I”m not a seasoned forecaster, but I can make sense out of the GFS and the WRF. And I see that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is seeing the same thing. They”ve got a nice, large area scoped out for Tuesday in their convective outlooks.
Chase weather? Mmm…maybe. I don”t like that the SPC is calling for a squall line. Evidently we”re looking at another vigorous cold front, same as last week, with large-scale, linear forcing. I can”t see making a lengthy road-trip for that kind of scenario. Still, the shear is good, and with enough low-level helicity, any storms that pop up ahead of the line could prove interesting. Of course, with decent backing winds, the potential will also exist for embedded supercells in the squall line, but we get our share of those in Michigan. I don”t much care for them. They”re hard to chase, and I”m sure not going to waste gas on them unless they come knocking on my back door–say, in Indiana.
We”ll see. Right now, I”m really just rambling. I”ll have a better idea of what”s going to happen come Monday evening. Meanwhile, the snow lies on the ground, more of it than anyone ever expected this winter. And winter is far from over, at least if Punxatawney Phil is a reliable prognosticator. Today is Groundhog Day, and ol” Phil didn”t see his shadow, so…we”re looking at still more snow following this next round of severe weather.
I did mention that life is interesting when you”re a weather freak, didn’t I?
